It won’t be as mild, or sunny this weekend. There will be a lot of settled weather but a blanket of grey cloud cover will move northwards. Under this many areas will be dry but with temperatures around average. Where the sunshine appears in the south on Saturday afternoon the temperatures could leap up, back to how it has felt at times this week.
There is Saharan dust working its way over France and the western Mediterranean on Thursday, reaching Wales and England. It is already visible on satellite images. If you are thinking about washing your car there will be clusters of showers which could bring the dust to the surface, otherwise it remains elevated, in the air. Most of the dust plume will be away by Friday night with just a slight return over Kent and Essex on Saturday.
Greater London is already reporting High levels of particle (Pm2.5) pollution on Thursday,
DEFRA Latest Forecast… "southerly flow brings some elevated Saharan dust north across the UK. Tomorrow (Fri 6th): Moderate to perhaps locally some Very High air pollution levels remain possible for the south and east of England on Friday. Generally Low air pollution levels expected elsewhere."
The dusty warm air from the south won’t reach into Ireland or much of Scotland on Thursday, as a weather front is bringing rain and a colder N/NW flow. Some of the showery rain over Wales might bring the orange dust to the surface. The contrast across the UK is distinct, so don’t be expecting a beautiful sunset if the frontal rain is on the way. 17 to 19C in SE/E England and only 4C under the rain in Northern Ireland on Thursday afternoon.
The rain will move across the Irish Sea and Scotland tonight with brisk winds along the coasts. There will be showery outbreaks of rain across a central swathe of Britain, with heavier rain for western Wales and northern England particularly over the high ground. To the north and west of the front there will be colder air and a frost inland. There will be snow over the hills of Scotland at the back edge of this frontal band during Thrsday night, and by dawn on Friday, snow over the tops of the Cumbrian Fells and the northern Pennines. To the southeast, it will remain fine and mild.
Friday
Expect a wet or damp start on Friday for northern England, the north Midlands and north Wales. Don't be surprised at any wintriness over the higher ground of northern Britain inland with this colder air.
East Anglia and the Home Counties should start off very mild with sunny spells. Much of England and Wales will see a good deal of cloud although the far west of Wales could see some sunny spells. As the overnight rain clears from NE England on Friday morning, showery outbreaks of rain will spread up from the English Channel over central southern England by lunchtime, then over the M3 and M4 and head towards East Anglia. So rather disappointing after the warmth and sunshine, but this could bring the Saharan dust to the surface, and to your car. Much of Scotland and Northern Ireland will have a glorious Friday, although the air is colder the sunshine will be uplifting.
Saturday
There will be further showery outbreaks during Friday night reaching southwest England with the cloud cover lingering over southern Britain. Further north there will be clear skies and a frost again. It will be windy for the Western Isles
Northern Britain and Northern Ireland will start the weekend with chilly sunshine but see a pleasant Saturday with temperatures around 10C. There will be low frontal cloud edging over the Western Isles, high cloud spilling over Scotland, and this southern blanket of cloud creeping into the Southern Uplands in the afternoon.
Sunday
This cloud cover will reach over much of mainland Britain and Ireland during Saturday night, ready for Sunday. There will be pulses of rain within this, perhaps surging up through Ireland, Northern Ireland into the western half of Scotland. The frontal band from the northwest will also edge a bit closer to the west coast of Scotland by the end of the weekend, up to the Northern Isles. Elsewhere across the UK it is a tricky picture to pin down. There will be thick cloud cover, but with a few gaps appearing. Welcome gaps with warm sunshine. For other areas, over the hills the cloud will be thick enough to bring drizzle and dampness, making it feel cooler.
The High pressure centred over the Baltic Sea by Sunday will manage to keep our UK rather steady, without interruption from the Atlantic. The very mild southerly flow of midweek will be fading away from SE Britain during the weekend. At this time of year, if you encounter sunshine in calm conditions, it does feel warmer anyway.
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