Arctic air will surge down through the UK for the start of this week with high pressure briefly building. Where skies remain clear, there will be daytime sunshine, but by night, temperatures will plummet with a risk of ice. During the middle of the week, an Atlantic low pressure will attempt to push over the UK but it will struggle as the high pressure blocks its progress.
There is a lot of uncertainty around this incoming low; how far it will progress over Ireland and Britain but also whether it will bring rain, or snow as well. The models differ, and there are no Met Office warnings yet as confidence is so low. However there will be cold air in place over the UK and heavy rain is likely, falling onto the saturated ground of S &SW Britain. There could also be snow on the northern edge.
"Ongoing impacts from groundwater are probable for parts of the South of England. Local surface water and river flooding impacts are possible in parts of the south of England on Wednesday and Thursday...Land, roads and properties could flood and there could be travel disruption."
Wednesday
One low centre could bring precipitation to Northern Ireland early on Wednesday, possibly some snow. It’s just something to bear in mind for now. Another low joins from the southwest. As these lows rotates past southern Britain midweek, there will be windy weather, with more cloud close to the low but ongoing sunshine under the high.
The easterly winds will make it feel colder on Wednesday as frontal rain peppers SW Britain with snow over the Moors and Welsh Mountains during the day. There is uncertainty around how far any precipitation may creep into Northern Ireland during the day, to County Fermanagh,Tyrone and Armagh. Also will this just be rain, or include sleet and snow?
Wednesday night
Frontal rain will spread over SW Britain during the afternoon but the UKV model just takes heavy rain over southern counties of England overnight, with the low sliding away over France.
The ECM model takes the frontal rain up towards the Midlands and over East Anglia.
The GFS model keeps Northern Ireland dry by day but pushes frontal rain into SW Britain on Wednesday afternoon then up into southern Wales and across to SE England during Wednesday night. The low centre drifts away over France and the wet (and potentially wintry) weather fades behind it.
The jetstream isn’t quite as far south as it has been recently with high pressure attempting to build for the Iberian peninsula. You can see the large meander with our midweek surface lows.
More wet weather over France during Wednesday night and the same system will bring unsettled conditions to the Alps and the Winter Olympics by Thursday, which spills over Austria and Croatia.
The winter roads crews in the UK will not be liking this setup but as Wednesday evening rush hour ends, many people should be off the roads overnight. We have another day to see how the weather models firm up with the positioning of their frontal bands from the two low centres and the progress eastwards. Added to the positioning of the bands, will there be rain and where will turn to snow? This could then impact travel on Thursday morning.
Depending on how the low pulls away SE Britain could be left with a cold NE wind on Thursday morning. Where skies have been clear further north it will be sub-zero again with frost and ice. Thursday becomes a fine, even sunny day but that chilly wind will linger.
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