There will be a subtle nudge to our static weather setup over the weekend. This has been bringing a lot of rain to certain parts, and more widely, plenty of grey, glum weather across the UK.
There will still be bands of rain, but also brighter slots and hopefully even a bit of sunshine for the select few. If you are planning a countryside walk, a hill trail, or ParkRun on Saturday, you know it is going to be muddy and slippery, with boggy ground and puddles. It shouldn’t feel as cold but it is still February and blustery rain will still be lurking.
Before we get to the weekend, Friday sees continued weather warnings. There are yellow rain warnings for the Welsh Mountains and S/SW England with a medium likelihood of low impacts. The Environment Agency is also highlighting a higher likelihood of groundwater flooding in Wiltshire and Dorset. The water table level is raised, and any surface water is just sitting, unable to be absorbed into the ground. The rivers are swollen, and when there is an onshore wind at the coast, perhaps combined with high tide, there is just a whole lot of water. As groundwater gets into people’s cellars, basements and the sewer network, pumps are often required.
Northern Ireland also has a yellow rain warning, there is also a low likelihood of medium impacts (more disruption) here. Met Eireann’s warning system is more quantitative (how much rain is forecast) than impact-based and there are Orange rain warnings in the south and east of Ireland, including for Dublin on Friday.
“Spells of very heavy rain falling on already saturated ground combined with high river levels and high tides will lead to: Localised Flooding, River Flooding, with potential impacts along the entire course of the river, Difficult travel conditions.” Met Eireann
The Isle of Man has had yellow warnings this week for coastal overtopping and yellow warnings for hill snow. For Britain, in the small hours of Friday, there will be a wintry mix over the Pennines. The Met Office has a yellow snow warning, again for low impacts as the wet weather on Thursday evening turns to snow over the higher ground. Currently, there is cold air over northern Britain. If you have been out in the wind and rain you will certainly know about that. By Friday morning “the altitude at which snow settles should steadily rise above that of most major trans-Pennine routes during the early hours of Friday…Much of this melting during Friday morning after the warning ends.” MO
This is one change for the weekend. There will be milder air behind the many occlusions linked to a large low pressure out in the Atlantic (Leonardo). As mentioned in the snow warning, the freezing level will rise and by Saturday, it will just be the tops of the Scottish mountains seeing snow, rain elsewhere. Quite a difference for northern Britain from today.
The Scottish ski resorts have seen a good dumping of snow this month, which they will want to keep for the February break. The winds don’t look strong this weekend, but as that freezing level rises, there will be rain, particularly for Sunday afternoon returning to eastern Scotland. More of the same; the dreary conditions of this week.
Temperatures
Shetland will stick at 4C this weekend but southern Britain could see 9 to 11C, perhaps even higher if the sun appears, and that will feel mild. Northern Ireland and the Central Belt of Scotland could reach 8C, which will be an improvement on the damp cold of recent days. The winds will be from the S, SE to East. This feeds in air from France and the Bay of Biscay, keeping the deep winter cold locked away over NE Europe and Russia.
More rain
Northern Ireland’s rain warning through Friday,
“particularly persistent over the east and southeast facing slopes of the Mourne Mountains and Antrim Hills, which may receive 60-80 mm…At the same time, strong to gale forecast east to southeast winds may lead to some difficult travel conditions and large waves along Irish Sea coasts.” MO
With the full moon this week, there have been spring tides, overtopping , sometimes catching out visitors in coastal car parks. Expect more of this into the weekend around high tides, especially as swollen rivers drain to the sea. The other yellow rain warning on Friday highlights parts of SW Britain
“with some higher ground areas receiving in excess of 50mm.” There are ongoing groundwater concerns, and due to this widely saturated ground, “some surface water flooding is probable, with difficult driving conditions from spray, flowing water or flooded roads in particular.” MO
It’s soggy, you know the areas locally where there will be problems but if you are travelling this weekend, look carefully at what locals are doing, or ask for advice.
Lincoln (Yarborough) ParkRun could still be grey and feel cool in the breeze but there is hope of dry weather even some brightness from 9am onwards. Glasgow (Pollok) ParkRun - hopefully drying up by 0930 but it will still feel chilly and damp. In Cardiff for the 9am ParkRun it looks mixed. Unsetteld but milder with showery outbreaks of rain but hopefully some brighter spells too.
Our weather has been dominated by a large mature low pressure away to the southwest, which was named Leonardo by the Portuguese Met Service, with stormy weather over Iberia. The fading low centre will drift towards the Irish Sea at the weekend, as new smaller lows trouble Portugal, Spain and then the Mediterranean. Bands of rain (marked as occlusions) will move northwards over the UK.
This is the tricky part for the forecast over the weekend. Around the low centre, there will be more rain and blustery winds. There is lower confidence about where will see the clearer/brighter slots but it looks like SW England will receive heavy downpours in the small hours of Saturday. The wet and windy weather will extend over Wales, perhaps more of southern England, although the UKV model gives eastern England a drier, even brighter Saturday morning. The ECM throws showers over the Home Counties, London and East Anglia. With more model agreement, rotating around the low, there will be showery outbreaks of rain over southern Britain, into Northern Ireland and NW England, then reaching SW Scotland by Saturday evening.
Further north, the weekend will start with an occluded front moving over northern Britain and Northern Ireland. The onshore flow for eastern Scotland will bring rain at times. It could look grim early on Saturday, but then improve for a time for Edinburgh, but not for Aberdeen. The wet and blustery weather will continue in the far north.
On Sunday, everything continues to rotate and ease northwards. There will be further bands of heavy downpours and murky low cloud, but more gaps with bright or sunny spells. Northeastern Britain looks grey, damp and breezy with an onshore flow and more wet weather. For those further south or west, there will be welcome sunshine, with light winds and those rising temperatures. There is hope, but the ground will remain soggy and muddy.
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