After a wet winter so far, with a constant barrage of weather systems off the Atlantic, Spanish and Portuguese authorities are bracing for another round of wind and rain this week brought by Storm Leonardo. Schools are being closed in some areas and there are warnings against travel, just one week after deadly Storm Kristin wreaked havoc with destructive winds and heavy rain across the Iberian Peninsula. Spain's state meteorological agency AEMET forecast that some mountainous parts of southern Spain may see rainfall equivalent to a full year of precipitation from the storm.
The synoptic pattern over the Atlantic has remained fairly stationary in recent weeks, with a strong polar trough over the North Atlantic forcing the jet stream at lower latitudes than normal over the North Atlantic, favoring the passage of successive storms and their associated fronts around the Iberian Peninsula.
Consequently, the weather across much of Portugal and Spain has been marked by frequent spells of heavy rainfall and strong westerly winds, accompanied by rough seas. This situation will continue in the coming days, conditions are expected to worsen from Wednesday onwards with the arrival of the extensive storm Leonardo, which will remain stationary northwest of the Peninsula until the weekend, with frontal waves and troughs moving east across Iberia in the strong westerly flow to the south of Leonardo.
The strong westerly flow induced by Leonardo will draw a mass of tropical air to the southern third of the Iberian Peninsula in an "atmospheric river" of tropical moisture originating from the Caribbean. This air will be characterised by a very high precipitable water content, particularly anomalous for this time of year. Consequently, locally heavy and exceptionally persistent rainfall is expected in parts of Andalusia, with significant accumulations in mountainous areas upwind of the westerly flow. Given the high level of soil saturation, this could lead to a significant flooding in both the Atlantic and Mediterranean watersheds of Andalusia, along with landslides. Leonardo will also bring strong winds, with very strong gusts and widespread rough seas in coastal areas, which could cause branches or trees to fall, as well as damage to property and infrastructure.
00z ECMWF Precipitation for Iberia now until Saturday
Following the devastating Storm Kristin which brought destructive winds to Portugal and heavy rain across Iberia, the ground across Portugal along with large areas of Spain is already saturated, increasing the risk of flash floods, river overflows, and landslides.
The Spanish State Meteorological Agency (AEMET) has issued a Red Advisory (its highest warning) for heavy rain for Cádiz and parts of Málaga province for today. The advisory warns of 150mm in 12hrs and 200mm in 24 hours in some inland areas.
Over 3,000 people have been evacuated in parts of Andalusia as authorities responded to the high risk of flooding in the Guadalquivir and Guadalete river basins.
All schools in Andalusia (except Almería) are closed on Wednesday due to the extreme weather danger. Other areas in southern Spain are under orange and yellow alerts for rain, wind, and coastal flooding including the Costa del Sol, Axarquía, and Guadalhorce Valley.
The more mountainous areas of Andalusia, namely the Betic Cordillera range, could see 300-400mm of rain by the end of the week.
As well as Andalucia, heavy rain will also bring impacts in the south and far northwest of Spain - with risk of flooding in parts of Extremadura, western Castilla-La Mancha and Galicia this week, with yellow advisories in force.
For Portugal there is a prolonged rainfall & flooding risk along with high winds and large waves along coasts. The Portuguese Institute of the Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA) has warned that the storm will bring persistent heavy rain across the entire mainland through the end of the week. Northern and central regions of the country are most vulnerable, with expected accumulations of 150–250 mm until the end of the week.
The entire coastline of Portugal is currently under an orange alert for rough seas, with waves potentially reaching a maximum of 11-12 metres. Most provinces are under yellow warnings for rain, some central and southern coastal provinces for wind too. Faro (Algarve), Bejo and Setabul areas are forecast gusts up to 90 km/h (55mph), and up to 110 km/h (68mph) in mountainous areas.
People across the Iberian Peninsula have been warned to stay away from riverbanks, mountain slopes prone to landslides, and low-lying urban areas subject to flash flooding There is likely to be significant disruptions to road and rail travel across the peninsula this week as a result.
Leonardo is expected to weaken from Friday onwards, concentrating mostly on Galicia. Strong gusts and rough seas are still likely in other places in Spain, along with more rainfall in the southern third of mainland Spain.
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