Overnight, the Midlands saw a wintry mix of sleet, icy rain and some short-lived snow even to low levels. A warm front, followed by an occlusion, moved northwards over Britain, coming up against the cold air in the north. With lower temperatures overnight and heavier frontal precipitation, there was a brief wintry interlude.
Milder air is following from the south, allowing temperatures in southern Britain to reach 8 to 10C on Wednesday, whereas further north they will reach 5 to 7C, but feel more like zero for the areas exposed to the wind and icy rain.
There will be a midweek break from all the rain for southern Britain. With some fair weather and the milder air on Wednesday it won't feel too bad but it will be short lived. AWay to the northeast, in the cold air, there will be snow inland, over the hills and mountains of northeastern and central Scotland, and the rain just continues off the North Sea for Grampian, Tayside and more of northeast Britain.
These Weds/Thurs snow and rain warnings have "a medium likelihood and a low impact", so are quite likely to happen but high impacts are not expected.
Parts of northeastern Scotland will see icy rain and sleet with several cms of snow over 100m inland. There is a rain warning for coastal Aberdeenshire and Aberdeen with a further 10 to 20mm expected, followed by an inland warning for heavier rain (30-40mm) turning to snow above 300m. With already saturated ground, this additional rainfall, and snowmelt will bring a risk of localised river flooding with difficult driving conditions.
For southern Britain, there are still high groundwater levels with the risk of flooding. The ground remains saturated so although Wednesday will bring a much better day and a midweek respite, there are still numerous flood warnings and alerts.
Environment Agency flood warnings and alerts Weds 4th Feb 10am with high groundwater - dark blue dots
Around the coasts of Britain and Ireland, there has been overtopping in the past week, with spring tides, large waves and an E/SE onshore flow.
“Avoid coastal roads, footpaths and carparks, which may be flooded and activate any flood protection products you may have.” EA
Northern Britain will continue to see wet and wintry weather on Wednesday. Exposed counties of Northern Ireland will also see a grey and damp midweek. Behind the warm front, the cloud will lift and with brighter skies, it won’t feel as cold. There will be a scattering of showers for SW England this afternoon and heavier ones tonight as a small low centre comes close.
The main larger low out in the Atlantic has been named 'Leonardo' by IPMA, the Portuguese Met service. This low has helped to steer more and more rain towards Iberia. It will not bring stormy conditions to the UK but with further bands of rain this week, the risk of flooding continues.
The powerful, southerly jetstream is keeping SW Europe in a river of water, with red extreme rainfall warnings for southern Spain, along with more widespread rain, wind and mountain snow warnings, extending into Portugal.
Slow-moving Leonardo is also influencing our UK weather. It keeps northeastern Britain in this damp onshore SE flow. Edinburgh will have a wet Wednesday with grey weather for Thursday, when it will feel cold and damp until the icy rain returns in the evening. At times, colder air from Scandinavia will pulse over northern Britain. There will be some colder nights for the north later this week.
There will also be a succession of fronts moving north over the UK in the flow around Leonardo. More damp weather and cloud for southern Britain on Thursday morning, on one of these bands. London looks wet on Thursday with temperatures around 9C, but feeling more like 6C.
Heavier rain will appear by Thursday evening for southern Britain as the wet weather over northern hills turns increasingly wintry. Snow over the Pennines, Southern Uplands and inland eastern Scotland. It looks wet for Northern Ireland and Wales by Friday morning, with the easterly flood bringing more wet and wintry weather to NE Britain. Northwestern Britain will do quite well for shelter and drier conditions on Thursday and Friday.
These frontal bands linked to Leonardo continue to bring more rain to areas which already have high groundwater and river levels. Some disruption looks possible by the weekend but even that is just bands of rain in different places with some sunny spells in between, nothing too settled yet.
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