Half term weather prospects - downhill but hope for the end of May

If you have been awaiting a half-term holiday then the timing of this change in the weather will be very annoying. After weeks of warm, dry and sunny weather the steady high pressure fades, the jet stream shifts and our weather begins to flow in from the Atlantic. The Bank Holiday weekend looks more changeable and mixed, often with cloudy skies and blustery winds. The following weekend does look more promising as June begins.

It has felt warm this May thanks to the (record-breaking amounts of) sunshine with often clear blue skies. In the coming week, there will be bright or sunny spells but also bands of frontal cloud and rain or clusters of showers. Not as much solar radiation to lift those temperatures. There will be warmer, more humid air on Saturday 24th with a brief southerly flow but then the winds will veer to a westerly. This will feel fresher and often cooler in shaded spots or when the cloud cover increases. 

However, it’s not all doom and gloom. There will still be bright and sunny times. Eastern Britain will probably fare better than western counties and when the sunshine does appear, in sheltered spots, it will still feel warm.

If you are packing for a week, think of more traditional April weather. The risk of rain, cool at times so pack a jumper, you might as well take your sunglasses and even a sunhat. There is the possibility that later next week the weather will settle down more. And that warmer air from Spain could start to head our way.

The jetstream has been further north and the setup for northwestern Europe has been anchored by high pressure. Many areas are crying out for rain but if you are heading away with children no one will want days of endless wet weather. Spain is finally seeing fine weather after months of cloud, rain and wind, although the water reserves are improved. The Azores high will extend over Iberia and France this week as temperatures in mainland Spain climb into the 30sC. The jetstream is shifting to lower latitudes and aiming straight at the UK. This will steer low pressures and their rain-bearing weather fronts our way. The traditional rainfall pattern for the UK will show itself for next week. Heavier rain for Northern Ireland, Wales especially over the mountains, for NW England and the Pennines, for western Scotland and the Southern Uplands. There will be rain shadow effects for eastern Britain but everywhere should see rain at some point in the coming week.

The UKV model shows the westerly flow of blustery showers and bright or sunny spells on Bank Holiday Monday going downhill as frontal rain arrives. Northwestern parts of the UK will turn wet as rain covers Northern Ireland, western Scotland and northwest England later in the day. That band of frontal rain could sink southwards over Wales and the Midlands during Monday night and affect more of England by Tuesday morning. A waving front could bring rain right across Britain reaching into eastern counties but the exact position will have low confidence this far ahead. That band continues to waver over the UK in the middle of the week with showers for western areas and brighter skies further east for regions away from the front. It is difficult to pin down the details this far ahead.

There are hints that the jetstream could begin to buckle by Friday 30th and the Azores high build towards SW England. This would interrupt the westerly unsettled flow and could herald a drier, sunnier weekend for the start of June. This Bank holiday weekend does look mixed with bands of rain, particularly at night, along with scattered showers but there is a chance that the following weekend settles down a bit and temperatures begin to rise.