The risk of thunderstorms continues for southern Britain but they are well scattered. For most it's more dry weather and sunshine until a cool breeze off the North Sea brings low cloud
We have a pulse of very warm and humid air across the UK for Monday with temperatures up into the mid-20sC with 24 to 27C possible. Cooler, fresher air will push in from the North Sea this week. It will still feel warm in the strong May sunshine but we will be back to that nip in the air for shaded, breezy spots later this week, and some colder nights.
Finally, parts of the UK saw some rain to end the weekend but there is still a worrying lack of rain for northeastern and eastern Britain. May has been a dry, but also sunny, month overall following a dry April and March. Although the rainfall and thunderstorms were quite a dramatic change, we will soon be back to high pressure with more settled and sunny weather.
Low pressure to the southwest of the UK will bring instability with the risk of further heavy showers even thunderstorms on Monday and Tuesday to certain parts of Britain. There will be more cumulus clouds for Wales and southern & central England which will affect the temperature climb slightly as will any showers on Monday. Northern Ireland will see a slow improvement after the earlier rain.
Convective forecast "Moisture pushing in from the southeast will be more widespread on Monday, so surface heating into the low to mid-20s and surface breeze convergence zones developing again will likely trigger isolated to scattered thunderstorms across southern England, Midlands and Wales. …isolated risk of large hail and strong wind gusts. Otherwise, thunderstorms may produce localised flooding, hail and Cloud to Ground (CG) lightning.”
Away from the cumulus cloud in the unbroken sunshine temperatures should rise to 25 or 26, even 27C is possible today. Many places will stay dry today but if you do catch downpour, it could be heavy and with the ground so hard, the water will tend to runoff rather than soaking in.
For many, Tuesday will be a gloriously sunny and warm day with fine, dry weather. There will be the risk of heavy showers again with scattered thunderstorms likely in a narrower corridor, from Kent across to the Severn Bridge and southern Wales by Tuesday afternoon. These develop from “surface heating and breeze convergence” with similar risks to Monday in that zone.
Eastern parts of Scotland will have seen the haar come and go as it lingers for longer in the far north. This low cloud will be back on Tuesday morning, sticking around the Moray Firth and creeping back along east coast Britain by the evening.
By Wednesday morning there will be grey skies through central Scotland and a seafret into northeastern England. It will feel cooler for eastern Britain whereas western areas will remain mild overnight with a scattering of showers for Devon and Cornwall on Wednesday. The heat looks to remain for the West Country on Wednesday, focused on inland Hampshire, Wiltshire and Somerset with temperatures of 22 to 25C. North Sea coasts will feel the cooler air off the sea, in a northeasterly breeze. Air temperatures will be closer to 15C but it will still feel warm in the sunshine with high UV levels. Western Scotland, Manchester and Merseyside will all fair well too.
This pattern will continue for the rest of the working week but will be a dig of cooler air and increasing low cloud off the North Sea. There is no appreciable rain in the forecast away from those scattered showers on Monday and Tuesday. It will always feel warm in any sunshine but this breeze from the northeast will bring fresher air across more of Britain as the week progresses and more grey cloud.
The very high risk of fires spreading continues this week with pleas from councils and Fire teams to think and take care whilst these conditions persist. Think about BBQs, campfires, cigarettes, litter, any naked flames and just how dry the ground is and the vegetation lying as fuel.
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