Easter Weekend looking mostly dry, but rain can't be ruled out for some

After a long hiatus, low pressure is back in charge of our weather this week, bringing some rain for most parts of the UK and Ireland, welcome news for gardeners and farmers after weeks of dry conditions. But will low pressure hang around and bring more rain through the Easter Weekend?

It looks to turn drier later this week and through the Easter Weekend, as high pressure builds down from the north and low pressure sinks back south across the Bay of Biscay and Iberia into the weekend, though the south could see some rain for a time on Saturday during the transition. However, low pressure may return northwards by Easter Monday - threatening some showers or spells of rain across southern and eastern areas

Back to the present, the last 24 hours - parts of eastern and southeastern England saw 15-20mm overnight from a persistent band of rain moving north, locally more than that. While parts of Pembrokeshire and Cornwall have seen 20-30mm. 

Further rain, locally heavy and persistent, is moving north with an area of low pressure across SW England and southwest Wales and will push north across Wales and the Irish Sea, with showery rain also breaking out and spreading north across England during the evening along a developing cold front moving north.

As the rain will be heavy and persistent across SW England and parts of Wales, especially towards the west, the Met Office have issued a yellow rain warning - which is in force until midday Wednesday. 

Whilst there is some uncertainty in where the heaviest rain will fall, 20-40 mm of rain is expected fairly widely. A few places may see 50-75 mm of rain during this period: gradually building up in the west following rain on Monday, whilst in parts of the east, falling in shorter periods where heavy showers and thunderstorms become slow-moving.

Pulses of persistent and locally heavy rain will continue to drift north across SW England and Wales this evening and overnight, as low pressure moves north across Wales and western England, this could be thundery in its eastern extent, with a thunderstorm moving north out of Somerset towards south Wales. Rain clearing SW England in the early hours. Showers possible further east spreading north across England this evening and overnight, perhaps locally heavy and thundery. Any showers today across Scotland tending to die out. It will also turn windy across Wales and southern England as the low moves north, perhaps gales around exposed coasts. 

Quite active area of #thunderstorms over N Somerset / Bristol Channel and south Wales Tuesday early evening - could be triple point area with enhanced lift. Heavy showers, some thundery, have also formed further east along cold front moving north across S England

Area of low pressure will continue to drift north-northeast across northern England and eastern Scotland on Wednesday, windy and generally cloudy with outbreaks of rain or showers affecting Scotland, N. Ireland, northern England and north Wales through much of the day. Turning drier and brighter across south Wales, southern England, Midlands and East Anglia. 

Rain with an area of low pressure pushing north tonight and through Thursday:

Thursday and Good Friday are actually looking mostly dry with some sunny spells for many away from the west and far north, where a few well-scattered showers are possible on Thursday, but some staying dry, while outbreaks of rain accompanied by strengthening winds could also affect the west on Friday, but uncertainty over eastern extent of the rain.

By Saturday, the model diverge for the southern half of the UK for Saturday, but generally dry for Sunday. GFS shows outbreaks of rain pushing northeast across south Wales and southern England, before retreating for Sunday. Rest of UK dry both days. ECMWF keeps most of the UK dry, generally bright or sunny both Saturday and Sunday - as a ridge of high pressure builds down from the north, though cloud and light showers affecting the east coast of Scotland and England - as an area of low pressure drifts east over the south North Sea. 

GFS Good Frday through Easter Monday:

Into Easter Monday and the uncertainty continues, but it looks more unsettled, as low pressure looks like it will try to attempt to move in from the south and southwest while high pressure to the north tries to hold firm. GFS looks most unsettled, with cloudy skies and showers or longer spells of rain spreading north over England, Wales and southern Scotland. 06z ECMWF shows outbreaks of rain pushing west across southern areas, showers off the North Sea for eastern Scotland and NE England, drier elsewhere.