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February nights turn frosty but with winter sunshine by day

Frontal rain from the northwest will be followed by colder air and wintry showers in the far north. High pressure builds later this week with cold air from the east and nighttime frost, fog and ice.


Issued: 3rd February 2025 13:28

Although we are a collection of islands, we are “not an island” in terms of our weather. Depending on the airmass, we can experience mild air in February that has travelled all the way across the Atlantic from the Caribbean. The UK high for February was 21.2C in London back in 2019. Or bitter cold, like the -22.3C in the snowy Highlands in 2010. We can experience a mobile winter setup with cold, showery weather from the north or northwest feeding down from the Arctic. Or a more stagnant picture when chilly, dry continental air flows from the east around a high pressure. This leads to frost, ice and fog if the high stays in place but it does not necessarily bring snow.  

No beast from the east

Key point for this month; an easterly flow does not always bring snow. It can just be quiet, cold even grey. In February, it can bring sleet or snow showers off the North Sea but just because the UK forecast mentions an easterly that does not mean a Beast from the East will return, whatever certain media outlets are filling their headlines with. If a 'BftE' is ever forecast again we will give you a timely warning here at Netweather in a calm, evidential way.

The UK starts the week under the influence of a low pressure to the north and high pressure to the southeast. By next weekend, it looks like cold air from the east could be the main feature.

Monday

Iceland is having a lively Monday with severe winter weather as a deep low pressure moves by. There are warnings for blizzard conditions, icy rain and severe gales. The cold front from that low is bringing a wet start to the week for northern and western Scotland and Northern Ireland.

UK weather

It is also windy for Scotland, through the Irish Sea, and across Ireland where power outages continue from Storm Eowyn which was ten days ago. On Sunday 2nd, 39,000 in Ireland and 400  homes in Northern Ireland were still affected and they will be watching the forecast closely.

Southwest Scotland has a yellow rain warning prompted by flooding concerns from SEPA. There is the strong onshore southerly wind with the risk of spray overtopping and the cold front will slow down over the region for Monday night and Tuesday morning.

Outlook

Away from the reach of the Icelandic low, there is quieter, drier weather thanks to the influence of the expansive high pressure over mainland Europe.

The winds pickup across the UK as the cold front moves from southern Scotland to Wales and England on Tuesday. It fades over southeast Britain by the evening as wintry showers reach northern and western Scotland. Colder air on a westerly flow takes hold midweek with drier weather and pressure will begin to rise. As the high pressure establishes itself over the UK a tuck of colder air comes in from the east reaching southern Britain by Thursday night and more for England and Wales by Saturday. As the winds ease for the second half of this week there will be more widespread frost by night and the risk of fog in places, even freezing fog.

There will be plenty of gloomy grey cloud pulled towards England off the North Sea. By the start of the new week, there could be wintry showers off the North Sea. A bit of snow perhaps, with eastern counties being exposed but it's a fair way off for now. 

It was Groundhog Day (and Candlemas Day) on Sunday. Both with strong weather prediction links. The legendary Punxsutawney Phil from Pennsylvania USA,  saw his shadow, signalling six more weeks of winter. No early spring according to the groundhog. 

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