As Storm Eowyn's exceptional winds ease across the British Isles, we examine its historic impact, draw parallels with 1990's Burns Day storm, and look ahead to a dramatic shift in weather patterns that will bring unusually high pressure to much of Europe.
Storm Eowyn has turned out to be quite exceptional, producing a maximum wind gust of 114mph at Mace Head in the Republic of Ireland, with the UK's highest gust being 100mph at Drumalbin in southern Scotland. The 114mph gust was the highest ever recorded in the Republic of Ireland, and the winds in Northern Ireland were reported to be the strongest for 27 years. It wasn't quite as severe as some earlier model runs had suggested, where there were predictions of gusts of up to 140mph near the west coast of Ireland, which could have caused mass devastation. Nonetheless, the storm has caused considerable damage and disruption across a large area of the British Isles, and has been described as a "once-in-a-generation" storm by weather presenter Judith Ralston.
One of the biggest threats to life and safety was fallen trees and branches flying through the air. In County Donegal in Northern Ireland, a man was killed when a tree fell on his car in the morning. It is estimated that around a million people have been without power in the UK and Ireland. All train services were halted in Scotland, one in five flights were cancelled, and all schools were closed in Northern Ireland.
Despite Storm Eowyn being the most substantial and damaging storm of the current unsettled period, more strong winds and rain are expected through Sunday and Monday. These conditions currently look likely to particularly affect south-western Britain, with potential for damaging winds and flooding.
The strong winds are being fuelled by very cold air coming out of North America and Canada, which has been clashing with the relatively warm temperatures over the North Atlantic Ocean and triggering cyclogenesis and thus deep low pressure systems. This has also brought wintry showers and issues with ice last night. However, this cold air will largely be prevented from taking a direct route towards Britain, meaning generally mild conditions during the coming week.
The weather will remain changeable, windy and generally mild next week. Towards next weekend, a large area of high pressure is expected to develop over central and north-western Europe, particularly affecting central Europe, where a prolonged settled spell may develop.
For Britain, the duration is less certain, as there is potential for changeable west to south-westerlies to return after a few days of quiet weather, especially for north-western Britain, though eastern England may retain the high pressure for upwards of a week. Central pressure could reach or exceed 1040 millibars (hPa), in stark contrast to the very deep depressions of the current unsettled spell.
Substantial snowfall appears unlikely during the coming fortnight at least, with any cold weather stemming from high pressure and surface cooling associated with temperature inversions in stable conditions. Wetter weather will be accompanied by mild south-westerlies, while the intense Icelandic low is forecast to persist, preventing cold air outbreaks from the north or east. A brief northerly incursion is expected next Thursday/Friday before the high pressure builds, though it should not be especially cold, with snow likely only on higher ground in the north.
Although it may not seem this way at present, the frequency of strong winds and destructive storms appears to have declined generally over the last few decades. While Storm Eowyn has set some records, stronger gusts may have occurred in storms during the 20th century when the wind observing network was less robust, as many anemometers would stop working when wind gusts approached or exceeded 100mph.
A notable extreme wind storm at this time of year hit on 25 January 1990, known as the Burns Day Storm or Cyclone Daria. Though not as intense in the affected areas as the storm of 16 October 1987, it impacted a larger area of the British Isles and thus caused more economic damage overall. The strongest gust recorded from this in Europe was 143mph at Brocken, Germany, while in the UK, the highest gust was 107mph at Aberporth and Gwennap Head.
As with Storm Eowyn, the 1990 storm was exacerbated by cold air from North America. This colder air reached Britain on a relatively direct track before and after the storm. An area of Wales, the Midlands and northern England saw falling and lying snow from a trough early on 24 January 1990, followed by a further wet snowstorm on 27/28 January which particularly affected the north of England.
Met4Cast I agree, I think we are actually on the verge of a much colder few weeks, with the Atlantic sliding next week - with decent snow events possible!!
It's a tough call my friend..
@Winter Cold yes, bring on Spring 😄
Just as an aside -
Internally the Met appear to be discounting the 00z UKMO run due to it being so different from yesterdays 12z run & not overly supported within their ensemble suites so are reverting to favouring their previous run, i.e...