A quiet, grey week for the UK but the Atlantic hurricane season isn't finished yet

High pressure over central Europe will keep our UK weather settled for the next few days. We will pick up a mild southerly flow. Where the skies are clear and with light winds the November nights will feel cool but even in northern Scotland, there won’t be a widespread frost. By day, the temperatures will be in the low to mid-teens Celsius with a lot of cloud about.

It's been a dry month so far for much of the UK

Northern Scotland could see the best of any sunshine to the lee of high ground in this southerly breeze. At times the cloud under the anticyclone will be thick enough to give drizzle but there aren’t any signs of frontal rain until at least Friday. The shielding effect of the high pressure begins to weaken out west and Ireland could see rain before dawn on Friday.

Scandinavia and the Baltic States have seen wild weather recently with a red warning for rain for Norway as a deep low pressure moved by. As we sit under steady quiet weather other parts of Europe have been hit by autumn storms. There was snow for Estonia and high winds which also caused disruption in Latvia at the weekend. 

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At the other end of Europe, Spain has suffered terribly from the flooding in the DANA event. Even today, Monday 4th coastal Barcelona is under a red rain warning. The wet weather in the western end of the Mediterranean doesn’t seem to want to end with further outbreaks all week.

The Azores and mainland Portugal will also see wet weather today, linked to tropical storm Patty. This tropical storm is quickly losing its characteristics and “is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone later today”.

NHC Key messages:   “Between late today and Tuesday, heavy rainfall across portions of Portugal and western Spain is possible from Patty or its remnants.”

RAINFALL: “Between late today and Tuesday, Patty or its remnants  are expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 “ (25 to 75mm) with local amounts to 5 “ (125mm) across portions of Portugal and western Spain.”

It’s not needed in southwestern Spain where there was a red rain warning at the end of last week. 

In the UK we are stuck, managing to avoid any severe wet and windy weather but stuck with grey skies. This ‘Anticyclonic Gloom’ can be a bit oppressive after a while. To shift it we’d need the breeze to pick up, or an inflow of drier air. 

Often land to the lee of high ground stands the most chance of seeing bright or sunny spells in these setups. On Monday, there has been drizzle and patchy rain. By Tuesday, more areas could see some brightness, particularly in the west and north. And maybe some of the drier, clearer air over northern France could reach Kent. Where the cloud cover does thin and break, the temperatures could rise a couple of degrees. County Down looks rather grey and damp again.

The large area of clear skies is showing on the models over northern Scotland so Aberdeenshire will see temperatures dip near to freezing early on Wednesday. Another mixed day with cloudy skies, perhaps damp around the Irish Sea then bright or sunny spells for other areas. 

Thursday looks similar, perhaps with more areas seeing some brightness. The change should come from the west for the end of the week but sometimes high pressure manages to hold on for an extra day. 

Caribbean

TS Patty is not the only tropical action in the Atlantic for this last official month of hurricane season. Potential Tropical Cyclone 18 would become Rafael. This is forecast to move northwards this week, with a Tropical Storm warning for Jamaica and a Hurricane warning for the Cayman Islands as it nears later on Tuesday.