News articles out recently suggesting that an Indian Summer is on the way this week, some with pictures of people sunbathing on beaches. But the definition of a warm and calm after the first frost does look to play out this week, warm yes, but not calm.
Articles abound in the news of an ‘Indian Summer’ on the way this week, with ‘hot’ in one article title along with some photos of people in bathing attire on sandy beaches soaking up the sun in a few articles too. Yes, it will turn much warmer compared to the cold conditions we’ve experienced over the weekend. But the reality is likely that it won’t be warm and sunny beach weather - as these images the papers try to portray to their readers. It is mid-October after all!
A selection of recent news articles forecasting an Indian Summer this week
It will turn warmer over the next few days, as winds turn southerly from Tuesday, drawing warm air up from the western Mediterranean. However, it will often be cloudy while it will also turn increasingly unsettled from the southwest by mid-week, as frontal systems move in from the Atlantic.
Tuesday will be rather cloudy with limited brightness across many areas away from the northeast, but despite this, temperatures could reach 18C across southern areas, as warmer air pushes up from the south. Wednesday looks to be the warmest day of the week, with temperatures perhaps reaching 21C across SE England and East Anglia with any brightness or sunshine before rain moves on from the southwest in the afternoon or early evening.
A lot of cloud spilling north with the increasingly warmer air on Tuesday and Wednesday, with increasing risk of heavy and thundery downpours on Wednesday too
But there will generally be a lot of cloud around accompanying the warmer air arriving from Tuesday, so temperatures may have got higher had it been sunnier. But with the cloudy skies and limited sunshine - it will hardly be sunbathing weather!
More of note is the temperatures warming up higher up than at ground level by mid-week, 850 hPa temperatures (about 1,500m up in the atmosphere) look to close to 15C across the far SE of England, about 10C above the average temperature at this height for the time of year.
Thursday looks to turn cooler from the west, as a cold front moving east pulls the rain arriving on Wednesday away. But it looks to remain unsettled with showers or longer spells of rain.
The expression ‘Indian Summer’ owes its origin to North America rather than the Indian subcontinent. The first reference to it dates from the 1700s, around the time Europeans were rapidly settling the New World. It relates to the observations of Native Americans Indians along the American east coast - who are said to have taken advantage of mild autumnal weather to hunt and forage later in the day to build up winter food stocks. According to an American Weather Historian, David Ludlum, it is said that in some areas that a true Indian Summer cannot occur after the first frosts of the autumn, a period known a ‘Squaw Winter’
However, there is no clarity for its use in the UK for warm weather in autumn.
The Met Office definition in a blog of theirs in 2013 is “An Indian summer is defined as a warm, calm spell of weather occurring after the first frost in autumn, especially in October and November”
While a Meteorological Glossary definition from 1963 doesn’t mention frost in it:
In the UK, some of the media seem to use ‘Indian Summer’ rather too liberally for any warm spell in September, October or November. But an unusually warm spell in October or November seems more sensible to class as an Indian Summer. The frost before the warm spell, and we are not talking just in the sheltered Glens of Scotland, is more of a grey area definition-wise.
True, we have seen a widespread ground frost across the UK last Thursday night, when we also saw the amazing aurora displays on that clear night. But the arrival of warmer weather this week after cold frosty weather of recent days doesn’t really fit the bill of a warm and calm spell of weather that is the definition of an Indian Summer. Warm yes, but not exactly calm, with the threat of heavy rain, perhaps thundery, moving in across eastern parts later on Wednesday after some warm and perhaps bright weather prior. Just one day of unsually warm weather too.
Indian Summer or not, October is one of those pivotal months can encompass all seasons of the year. Sometimes it can feel like an extension of summer – with mellow golden sunshine and gentle warm breezes, the only reminder that it’s not summer being the misty or foggy mornings and getting dark earlier in the evening. But a reminder that it is the middle month of meteorological autumn can often be strong winds and lashing rain or even an unwelcome early taste of the colder months to come – especially later in the month, with frosts or even snow over northern hills driven by cold northerly winds.
Loading recent activity...
