As autumn takes hold, a shift in weather patterns brings increasingly unsettled conditions across the UK. Expect a mix of rain, thunderstorms, and cooler temperatures.
It's astronomical autumn, so it's perhaps a little late for thundery weather more akin to summer to be on the menu. This has been happening more frequently over the past few years, probably a product of the warming climate, with some severe storms across the Midlands and South yesterday evening followed by further bursts of heavy thundery rain overnight. As pressure continues to slowly leak away, all parts will eventually become very unsettled and cooler into the coming week.
Copious amounts of rain can be expected in the next few days across some central, southern and eastern parts, before a thundery depression currently moving into the English Channel eventually ends up in the North Sea. For the moment, high pressure towards Iceland and over the Baltic continues to keep the northern parts dry, while southern and central areas see further sharp showers and thunderstorms.
Rainfall accumulation animation
Low cloud and mist should eventually burn back but could linger towards some coasts of East Scotland and the North East, with temperatures here getting no higher than 13 or 14C as a result in a gusty north-east wind. For much of the North, there'll be spells of hazy sunshine, with the best of these in the West. It'll become warm in the sunshine, with temperatures reaching 18 to 20C, but 22 or maybe 23C in a few sheltered parts of Northern Ireland and West Scotland. Most parts stay dry, but we already have a few showers south of the Ribble valley, with perhaps a few sharper showers or storms cropping up across Manchester, Merseyside and Cheshire later.
From the Midlands southwards, we've got a lot of mist and murk, outbreaks of rain (some heavy), and a few thunderstorms. More storms develop through the day, some giving torrential downpours and localised 'flash' flooding, although not everywhere will see them. Most places keep a lot of cloud, but where you see any sunshine, albeit hazy, it'll become warm despite a north-easterly breeze. Top temperatures 17 to 21C.
Much of England and Wales become misty overnight as low cloud returns, with the driest weather towards Cumbria and the Scottish border. There'll be further bursts of rain, some heavy and torrential with thunder and lightning for a while in a gusty north or north-east wind, with the storms perhaps occurring a little further north than last night. Across the South and South East, skies could break later in the night, although still with showers 'dotted' about, some heavy and thundery.
There may be a few sharp showers to the south of Belfast, but for much of Northern Ireland and Scotland, it'll continue to be mainly dry overnight, although mist and low cloud will return, especially to eastern areas. This could give a little drizzle in places later, in a mostly moderate north or north-easterly breeze. It'll be a very mild night across most of Britain, with temperatures on the whole not falling below 13 to 15C, and 9 or 10C in the far North.
The new working week begins wet over England and Wales, with some heavy rains at first. After a brief lull, further wet weather moves in mid-week. Scotland and Northern Ireland also see showers, where it'll be turning much cooler from the North.
A damp and dreary start for much of England and Wales, with lingering heavy rain and the risk of thunderstorms. Skies may brighten in the south through the day, but scattered showers will persist. Scotland and Northern Ireland will see a mix of sunshine and showers, some heavy, with a noticeable drop in temperatures as cooler air filters south.
A cooler day across the board. England and Wales will experience sunny spells interspersed with blustery showers, some heavy and possibly thundery. Scotland and Northern Ireland will be breezy with further showers, with some wintriness over the Scottish mountains.
Geordiesnow Yeah, I'll take this weather all day long. It's another week closer to Spring for me.
I much prefer a bit of grey and boring but dry and usable weather compared to the train of storms that we usually get at this time of year.
We will pay...
Yet another cloudy dry start; current low is 9.5 C, almost 5C above normal
Lukesluckybunch ecm trying it has to be said with a push of heights into Greenland from day 8.
Good to see main vortex over siberia as well.
Models in general are definitely flirting with the idea of generating more interest for coldies end of next...
Nice ICON this morning at the end of the run by 180h,looks promising with heights pushing into greenland..on the ECM the shortwave to the south of Greenland,at 192 is a bit annoying otherwise it could be a clean push up,having said that the hp looks...
snefnug Yep! This is the satellite photo from yesterday which shows just the northern coast of Pembs with no cloud cover and a sharp leading edge which I was surprised to discover! No idea why the clouds should part right there but isn’t the weather...