The weekend will include some fair weather but it’s just not reliable or truly summery. There will be bright spells rather than brilliant sunshine. Temperatures in the high teens to low 20s Celsius so feeling pleasant when the sunshine does appear. On Sunday the winds will be light everywhere and that will make a difference for eastern England, particularly for Kent, after a cool northerly on Saturday. Sunday will feel warmer. There will be a scattering of showers but also a good deal of drier, often cloudy weather in between. There is some uncertainty in the forecast for Saturday night and Sunday due to rain over the North Sea. When will it reach eastern Britain and how long it will linger?
High pressure is trying to sidle in from the Atlantic. This will make a half-hearted attempt to steady our UK weather and for those who’ve seen persistent heavy rain or thunderstorms midweek then yes, there is a bit of settling down. However several things work against the rising pressure/ better weather theme. The airflow over the UK will arrive from over the top of the high pressure with a cool northerly flow on Saturday. For many the winds will be light but when it’s cloudy or along exposed coasts, that breeze will make a difference. It will be a very British experience at the beach for holidaymakers. Plucky kids in shorts and a fleece or jumper. Adults finding a sheltered spot or sculking behind a stripey windbreak, “enjoying” the summer seaside with their coats pulled tight. And then if the sunshine appears, it will feel lovely, briefly, like a temporary gift.
Overnight rain for southeastern Britain will clear away southwards from Kent early on Saturday. Northeastern Britain will start off cloudy and a bit damp as showers appear elsewhere. Wales, Northern Ireland, SW Scotland and NW England could all see a few sharp showers during the day in the northerly flow. The winds will be light for Scotland but noticeable for East Anglia in the morning and around the Thames Estuary.
Inland Britain could see lengthy dry spells but eastern England remains at risk from showers.
Northern France and the Benelux countries have seen some wild weather running through, even reaching western Germany with heavy rain, gusty winds and thunderstorms. Another low pressure will move in, from the Bay of Biscay over France to northern Poland and up to the southern Baltic Sea. This begins to dumbbell around another low centre west of Denmark by lunchtime on Saturday. Around this will be troughs with showers steered down the North Sea and more persistent rain.
This is the uncertainty for the weekend forecast. The ECM Model has this eastern rain reaching NE England later on Saturday and more persistent widespread rain reaching eastern Scotland on Sunday and spreading inland. So a wet picture for the second half of the weekend in the far NE.
The UKV model has the rain over eastern and NE England by Saturday evening and night but rolls it northwards on Sunday brushing eastern Scotland and then away. The previous model run had very little rain reaching NE Britain. This would allow higher temperatures across Britain.
The GFS model has more showery rain troubling eastern England on Saturday and then fading on Sunday from around the Forth down to the Borders.
Temperatures on Sunday, away from any rain will be 19 to 24C so feeling warmer with hardly any wind. If the rain stays away there will be bright or sunny spells and a scattering of showers inland. If the rain does set in for eastern parts, temperatures will stay in the mid-teens here. Southern England looks more cloudy with a new area of rain arriving for Cornwall and the English Channel by the end of the weekend.
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