Week ahead: very wet start, but turning more showery later, on the cool side.

The first half of the upcoming week looks to remain unsettled with low pressure in control across Britain, with some wet weather spreading northeast later tomorrow and into Tuesday, while temperatures look to remain below average too. However, later in the week there could be more sunshine and few showers and there are signs that high pressure may build in time for next weekend, bringing drier, more settled and warmer weather.

Before then, we've already seen a lot of rain fall in the last few days across parts of southern England across to East Anglia, from frequent downpours. The map below shows 48 hour rainfall totals between midnight Thursday night and midnight last night. Some rain gauges recording between 45-50mm over SW England and just to the north of London, while 25-45mm of rain have fallen widely across southern England and East Anglia. The average July rainfall for London, Luton, Portsmouth and Plymouth is around 60mm. We've already seen over half of that across parts of southern England.

Data from Starling Roost Weather rainfall obs

Unfortunately there's more rain on the cards over the next few days and, locally, another 25-40mm could fall across parts of southern England by the middle of the week, following widespread showers today and a low pressure system moving northeast tomorrow and into Tuesday - which will bring outbreaks of heavy rain across many areas.

Sunday

For now, Sunday morning has already seen heavy showers, from the word go across southern and western areas of Britain, with a few rumbles of thunder in places, but also some occasional sunny spells. Eastern areas of England and Scotland have escaped with a mostly dry and bright or sunny morning, but showers further west will become more widespread across Britain as we head into the afternoon, showers will be heavy and increasingly there will be some thunderstorms, particularly across northern, eastern and southeastern England. Showers will tend to ease and turn lighter across the far west in the afternoon, as high pressure builds. A touch warmer than yesterday, highs of 16-19C, but this is still below average for early July. It will, at least, be less windy than yesterday.

Showers will tend to fade into the night, with winds turning lighter and skies clearing to a dry night, turning chilly though, especially in rural areas. Temperatures falling into single digits widely away from the far southwest, even in towns and cities, perhaps low single digits in rural areas.

Monday & Tuesday

After a chilly start, Monday morning will be dry and sunny for most. Scattered showers look to develop across central and northern areas in the afternoon, but with sunny spells too, while cloud will thicken across southern areas of England and Wales in the afternoon, with outbreaks of rain spreading northeast - which will turn heavy during the evening. A little warmer than today, especially where we keep the sunshine, temperatures reaching 17-20C.

Tuesday will see an area of low pressure move northeast across western then northern areas, an area of heavy rain across England and Wales early in the morning will clear north from northern England in across southern Scotland late morning into early afternoon, drier conditions with brigher or sunnier skies following across central and southern Britain through the morning, before heavy showers or longer spells of rain develop from the south in places in the afternoon, perhaps with thunder locally. It will be a windy day, perhaps with gales around western coasts and hills, along with North Sea coasts. Temperatures reaching 16-19C, perhaps 20C with some sun in the southeast. 

Rest of week

Heavy rain across Scotland Tuesday night becoming confined to the north on Wednesday, to the north of an area of low pressure sat somewhere across the north which will tend to fill, with winds becoming lighter, but there will be sunshine and scattered showers across England, Wales, N. Ireland and southern Scotland, some heavy and thundery, but some places may stay dry. Temperatures reaching 15-19C generally, but may reach 20-22C across southern and eastern England.

Through Thursday and Friday, low pressure will tend to retreat to the east, allow high pressure to build in from the west. So gradually turning drier from the west, though there could be further showers across Scotland, southern and eastern areas on Thursday, drier and sunnier elsewhere. Friday should stay mostly dry and sunny, but there is a risk, albeit uncertain one, for thundery showers to affect the far south and southeast on Friday.

Next weekend

Next weekend looks like settling down for all, as high pressure builds in, with increasing sunshine and warmth, though there could still be a few isolated showers. High pressure may not last into next week though, with signs from ensembles for low pressure to return from the west.