Consistently mild nights have propelled Spring 2024 to be provisionally the warmest CET on record. As we transition into June, the forecast is for a dry and settled start, providing a welcome respite from often wet and cloudy conditions of late.
In the Central England Temperature (CET) series, which dates back to 1659 and is based on temperature readings from a region between Lancashire, London, and Bristol, the spring of 2024 provisionally appears to be the warmest on record. The mean temperature for spring 2024 is projected to be 10.5 or 10.6°C, surpassing the previous record of 10.3°C set in 2011 and 2017. The wider UK temperature series maintained by the Met Office is yet to be finalised for May, but there is a substantial chance this spring will be the warmest on record for the UK as a whole.
To many people, Spring 2024 may not have seemed unusually warm because there haven't been many warm and sunny spells with exceptionally high daytime temperatures. For most of the country, this spring has been cloudier and wetter than average. This was mainly due to frequent dull and wet weather in March and April, with May being nearer normal for sunshine and rainfall averaged nationally. However, there has been considerable regional variation, and some areas have also experienced a cloudy and/or wet May. May has been especially wet around Edinburgh, where flooding has recently been a significant issue.
The warmth of Spring 2024 has been achieved through consistently higher-than-average temperatures, especially by night, and a lack of substantially colder-than-average temperatures. Although the second half of April was cold by recent standards, it was not cold enough to offset the warm first half. Many areas of lowland Britain have seen no air frosts since early March and have experienced the entire spring without any sleet or snow, both of which were rare events in the 20th century. On average, the frequency of sleet and snow in March tends to be similar to December.
June has begun dry and settled for most, with high pressure close by to the west, although cloud amounts are variable. There is extensive cloud cover over much of eastern England, but away from the eastern half of England, many areas have started the day with plenty of sunshine.
The first week of June is likely to be drier than normal, especially in southern Britain. However, unlike the spring we've just had, it will not be substantially warmer than average due to frequent northerly and north-westerly winds, which are traditionally common at this time of year. High pressure will remain close to the British Isles but centred mainly to the south-west, hence the north-westerly winds. The distribution of cloud cover is set to shift on Sunday, when central, southern, and eastern England are likely to have the warmest and sunniest weather as the winds increasingly come from the west or north-west. Much of eastern Britain, including eastern Scotland, can expect to reach around 20°C on Sunday.
During the second half of this coming week, low pressure is expected to develop over Scandinavia, allowing cool, showery weather to develop via north-westerly winds, with high pressure centred further out to the west and south-west. However, for most of us, it will not be particularly wet or cloudy: the showers will generally be scattered and mostly light, and there probably won't be many showers in southern Britain. There will be some sunshine as well. Some parts of the south may see out the first week of June without any rain at all, and even in the north, where there will be more showers, most places will likely be drier than average during the first week of June.
Once we get past the first week of June, forecast models are giving mixed signals. The European models run by the Met Office and the ECMWF suggest a continuation of the cool, bright, showery, but not especially wet north-westerly type weather. In contrast, the American GFS model predicts high pressure shifting eastwards across southern Britain, possibly bringing a brief spell of warm, dry weather with a fair amount of sunshine, especially for the south, followed by a return to the weather patterns typical of much of the spring, bringing wet but generally warm weather.
It is unlikely that Britain will see any unusual heat during early June, with temperatures generally staying close to the long-term average. However, the first substantial heatwave of the summer looks set to establish over south-western Europe towards the end of the first week of June, with potential for temperatures to hit 40°C in central and southern Spain and inland parts of Portugal by the middle of next week. There is potential for some of this heat to move into southern France towards the end of next week and into the following weekend. There is, of course, a long way to go this summer, and with recent summers often being hot over large areas of Europe, there is a substantial chance of Britain seeing major heatwaves again at some point during summer 2024, but not during early June.
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