The UK's weather remains in a wet rut, but Easter weekend promises something of a break. Expect a mix of sunshine and scattered showers, with drier periods offering a chance to enjoy the holiday. A settled pattern remains elusive, though, with more rain to come next week.
The weather has often been stuck in a rut since last March. Except for a spell during late spring and early summer 2023, there has been a frequently recurring pattern of blocking anticyclones to the north of Britain, particularly around Greenland, and the jet stream passing to the south, frequently right over the British Isles, with lowest pressure often centred to the west of Britain.
The Greenland blocking high is regularly associated with cold northerly and north-easterly winds, but due to the strength of the jet stream and low pressure over and to the west of Britain, the weather has rather been mild and wet for most, with frequent southerly and south-westerly winds in the circulation around the rain-bearing low-pressure systems.
This pattern is persisting over the Easter weekend and seems set to continue for the foreseeable future too. However, Easter Sunday and Monday do not seem set to be quite as wet and windy as was indicated by earlier forecast model runs during last week.
Spain and Portugal have also had some very wet weather recently associated with Storm Nelson, which is reported to have killed four people in Spain. Storm Nelson also caused considerable disruption to parts of southern Britain, especially in Devon and Dorset. Into next week, a ridge of high pressure will develop in southern Europe, promising Spain and Portugal some drier weather, especially near the Mediterranean coast. Still, low pressure will continue to dominate Britain's weather, again frequently centred just to the west or southwest of Britain, with the Greenland blocking high continuing to prevent the lows from pushing northwards towards their more usual position to the north of Scotland.
Today is set to be a relatively quiet day, with the low-pressure system associated with Storm Nelson weakening out to the west of Britain. Most of the country will have a bright day with some sunny spells and scattered showers. The showers are likely to be most numerous in Northern Ireland and in northern Scotland, and they could be locally heavy and thundery. Much of southern and eastern England will not see many showers, with many places staying dry, although East Anglia will be cloudy for most of the day with some showery rain. Maximum temperatures will generally be between 11 and 14C, and thus rather higher than we've seen on many recent days, meaning that for many, it will feel warm in the sunshine.
Overnight tonight, it will generally be dry and clear, with minimum temperatures between 2 and 5C. This gives the potential for a slight frost in some prone frost hollows in the north, though most places will remain frost-free. However, it will cloud over in Northern Ireland, south Wales, and south-west England with some showery rain, and minimum temperatures will hold up at around 7C due to the cloud and rain.
Sunday will be a cloudier day in most of Northern Ireland, England and Wales, with further showers for Northern Ireland, and some rain spreading slowly northwards through eastern England, mainly affecting East Anglia. Low cloud may spread onto eastern coastal areas of England, associated with onshore winds. However, there will continue to be some sunny spells for most of Wales and western England, and much of Scotland will have a predominantly sunny day with just a few scattered showers, with many places staying dry. Temperatures will generally be similar to today's, except near North Sea coasts, where the onshore winds will result in maximum temperatures of around 10C. Scotland will generally be a little warmer than today.
Monday will generally be a cooler and cloudier day but it will be predominantly dry and sunny in the west of Scotland and in the north of Northern Ireland. There is some uncertainty over how far north the rain will push, but a band of rain is expected to push northwards through England and Wales, bringing a spell of cool, dull and wet weather, with brighter weather accompanied by some heavy thundery showers following behind into southern England, which may extend as far north as the English Midlands.
Many people are set to get off relatively lightly over the Easter weekend as far as suitable weather for outdoor activities goes, despite a continued unsettled spell, with an emphasis on bright and showery weather on Friday, Saturday and Sunday and some places not seeing many showers. But the weather seems set to return to being cloudy and wet over England and Wales for much of next week, with bands of cloud and rain pushing in from the southwest and becoming slow-moving as they collide with the Greenland blocking high. This wet weather is likely to push into Northern Ireland and central and southern Scotland at times, but northern Scotland, especially the far north-west of Scotland, is expected to see plenty of dry and sunny weather.
