Some colder weather is moving down from the north during this weekend, finally breaking the warm weather across the south of the country. It'll be cold enough for some snow over the Scottish mountains for a time, with ground frosts becoming quite widespread as well.
Temperatures have been somewhat above the long-term average in England and Wales as well as globally for some time. However, some colder weather has affected much of Scotland, in particular during the past week, and during the weekend through until the middle of next week, all of us will be seeing a spell of below-average temperatures. The culprit is a north-westerly outbreak which is upon us today and which will run out of steam tomorrow, leaving us with high pressure and dry and predominantly sunny and calm weather. Frost will become quite widespread at night for a time.
As cold weather heads into north-west Europe, the warmth will be shifted elsewhere, with some exceptional warmth for mid-October coming up this weekend for Canada and then for the west of North America during next week.
Today will be a dry and sunny day for most, but there will be showers in northern Scotland, north and west Wales and in the north of Northern Ireland, and a feed of showers through north-west England and the Cheshire Gap into the Midlands. A scattering of showers will develop in other parts of Wales and the southern half of England in the afternoon. Showers will turn increasingly wintry on high ground in northern Scotland, with potential for some sleet to penetrate to low levels during the evening.
Temperatures will be somewhat lower in the south than we've been used to recently, reaching between 13 and 15C in southern England but generally between 9 and 12C in other parts of England and Wales, around 8 to 10C in Northern Ireland and between 6 and 9C in most parts of Scotland.
Showers will continue in northern Scotland tonight, where after midnight they will turn back to rain except on the highest ground as less cold air moves in from the north-west. Some rain showers will also affect the north of Northern Ireland, the north and west of Wales and around Cheshire. Elsewhere, any showers will die out, and temperatures will widely fall to a minimum of between 2 and 4C, resulting in many of us seeing a slight frost. Temperatures will be lower in most parts of Scotland, in the far north of England (north of Lancashire and Yorkshire) and in the south of Northern Ireland, where they will widely get down to around 0C, resulting in more substantial frost. In the north of Scotland, however, showers and some less cold air moving in will keep temperatures no lower than 2 to 4C.
The colder air will be established over England and Wales on Sunday with maximum temperatures generally between 10 and 12C, even in the south, despite plenty of sunshine. It will be a dry and sunny day for the vast majority of the country, but some showers will continue in northern Scotland, which will remain wintry in the Highlands but will fall as rain at low levels. It will not be as cold as today in Scotland or Northern Ireland, where highs of 12 or 13C will be widespread in Northern Ireland and around 11 or 12C in southern Scotland. Winds will fall light. Some high cloud will move in from the west during the afternoon and evening, resulting in the sunshine becoming weaker, but there will continue to be some sunshine.
Frost will be widespread on Sunday night with temperatures generally falling to a low of between 0 and 3C, although coastal areas of northern Scotland and southern England will generally fall no lower than 5C and thus avoid seeing any frost.
Most areas will be dry and sunny again on Monday, though there will be some high cloud around, especially in England and Wales, and low cloud could prove slow to clear in some places. Showers will become confined to the western and northern coastal fringes of Scotland, with other areas of northern Scotland becoming dry. Temperatures will increase by day, so by Tuesday most central and southern parts of England will reach around 15C. There will continue to be cold nights but not generally as cold, so frost will be limited with minimum temperatures mostly around 3 to 5C.
From Wednesday onwards, south-easterly winds will pick up and the weather will turn more unsettled. We will see bands of rain pushing in from the south, which will become quite slow-moving in northern England and southern Scotland as they grind to a halt against an area of high pressure over Scandinavia, and it will turn warmer for most, especially the south. However, Scotland will often hold onto colder weather, with sunshine for north-west Scotland, and showers for the east.
