High pressure will move over the UK at the weekend and stay for next week. There will be warmth and sunny spells. The rain is over Spain instead and Florida awaits Hurricane Idalia landfall
There has been a fresher feel to the early morning air and that will be noticeable for Friday night and the start of Saturday. Warmer air will reach across the UK at the weekend as high pressure builds. It will feel different, perhaps more humid during the weekend. This is not high summer heat but temperatures will edge into the low to mid 20s Celsius although it's not a totally dry, fine picture.
Sunday looks to be the warmer day with England seeing temperatures nudging up to around 28C in places. Very light winds for the start of Saturday across the UK and staying calm this weekend for the southern half of the UK. It will be windy for the far north of mainland Scotland on Saturday night and again later in the day on Sunday with a fresh to strong south-westerly wind. It looks wet for northwest Scotland by Sunday night.
The main feature, synoptically, at the weekend is the building high pressure which will extend in from the Atlantic and remain for next week. It could be quite breezy for southern Britain in an east to northeasterly flow around the base of the high on Tuesday.
An occluded front looks to move southwards during Friday night and Saturday morning (it is showing over Kent at 12Z) and this could keep thicker cloud and patchy rain over parts of England and Wales on Saturday. So just because there is high pressure don’t automatically expect sunshine and blue skies.
Spain is going to see very unsettled weather this weekend from a low pressure which will also affect SW France with the risk of thunderstorms here too. Spain will see heavy rain as it sits under a great meander in the Jetstream holding the low over Iberia.
There is also a deep low closer to Greenland whose fronts will bring blustery SW winds, more cloud and outbreaks of rain to the far NW of Scotland. The timings vary on the different forecast models. Some show late Saturday and unsettled weather during Sunday but others, like the ECM, wait until Sunday afternoon and evening. That whole frontal divide links back south across the Atlantic to what will become Ex-Franklin. Hurricane Franklin is currently creating Tropical Storm conditions for Bermuda.
The Big Bend region of Florida is awaiting the arrival of major Hurricane Idalia today. It is a Cat 4 hurricane and is forecast to bring catastrophic storm surge and destructive winds here.
“The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Wakulla/Jefferson County, FL to Yankeetown, FL...12-16 ft Ochlockonee River, FL to Wakulla/Jefferson County, FL...8-12 ft” NHC
Northern Ireland should have a fair bright day and also for Scotland, after any early low cloud clears from the east coast. Sunday’s weather in Scotland will depend on the progress of the frontal band from the northwest but hopefully a fine start. The day will turn more blustery, cloudy and then wet from the west although the timings are uncertain. A quiet Sunday for Wales and England although low cloud may encroach from the sea onto western Wales and around the Bristol Channel.
Hopefully, there will be a lot of fine, sunny weather and with light winds, the temperatures will rise. A breeze off the sea could make coastal Kent and the Thames estuary feel a bit cooler by the end of the weekend but Aberdeenshire could see warmer with Fohn Effect conditions if the front is delayed to allow some sunshine for eastern Scotland.
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