UK temperatures remain in the high teens to low 20sC as southern Europe swelters. An Atlantic low will bring wet and windy weather this weekend although with humid air wrapped up in it.
We are not going to be affected by the heatwave which is currently savaging the Mediterranean. It was a year ago today that the UK saw its highest recorded temperature. Coningsby in Lincolnshire reached 40.3C, jumping past the 2019 record of 38.7C. The incredible summer heat saw tropical nights, concerns for health and advice to stay inside with a red warning for extreme heat from the UK Met Office. This year, it is southern Europe seeing ongoing 40+C temperatures and various heat alerts.
The Balkans, Italy and Spain again have extreme temperature red warnings today as southern France recorded minimum temperatures of 25C by night. It is the continual high temperatures with little respite which cause concern along with longer term drought conditions, high power demands from air-con and the extreme fire risk or wildfires themselves.
‘The heatwave was remarkable in Mediterranean this Tuesday, July 18, 2023. Rome shattered its record with 42.9°C and Catalonia exceeded 45°C for the first time!’
Yesterday southeast England was warm (but not hot) with Heathrow airport recording 24.3C. Cardiff reached 20.6C compared to the 37.1C Welsh record, in north Wales, from a similar time last year. Northern Ireland’s top temperature on Tuesday was 19.5C. Belfast should see 18C today.
The airflow is from the northwest, so it is fresh and feels cooler in the shade or as a shower passes. In the strong July sunshine, it will still feel warm but after dark that soon goes, away from Greater London. Southern Britain will see temperatures in the low to mid 20s Celsius today. Other parts will be in the high teens to 20C.
There will be three days of bright or sunny spells and showers passing by on light winds. There will always be areas that miss most of the showers and other parts that see a few hefty downpours. The north-westerly flow backs to a westerly flow on Thursday and Friday. Today the showers will be well scattered, focused on the north and east of the UK. Showers more likely later this week for north and northeastern Britain and they pep up a bit by Friday for northern parts after a cool start. Well down into single figures for inland Scotland
The forecast charts for the weekend show a large Atlantic low stomping across the UK. This will bring warmer air but also wind and rain. It was windy last weekend; not sure we need that again. Decent frontal rain (rather than showers) will be welcome for gardens and water reserves but does it have to arrive at the weekend and trundle slowly across the UK?
Looking at the UKV forecast rainfall totals at the weekend, the far southeast of England seems to escape most of the rain as does northern Scotland. The track of the low pressure may vary with the heavier and persistent rain affecting different parts later this week.
South-westerly winds will pick up on Saturday morning as the low arrives, freshening for Wales and England. Ahead of this will be blustery south to southeasterly winds for Northern Ireland and Scotland then an easterly wind up the Firth of Forth and for Grampian by lunchtime. Some areas will see lighter winds on Sunday as the low centre moves by but it could stay windy for southeast Britain. There will still be uncertainty about the timing and location of the main rain areas. We have to wait until nearer the time to see where the low will track. However, it looks like there will be some heavy rain, hefty even thundery showers and blustery winds around with the risk of gales for exposed coasts. Anywhere that does see sunny breaks will soon feel warm and muggy.
