Looking very warm for next week with UK temperatures moving up through the 20s Celsius, even reaching 30C in the southeast. The heat from Spain where there are heatwave warnings.
Temperatures have been stuck between 16C and 23C as UK maximums recently. If you are in direct sunshine, it can feel very warm. The May/June sunshine is strong and it’s worth remembering sunscreen and a sunhat, as long as you can keep the hat on your head in this wind. And yet the air hasn’t been hot, not really muggy or sultry. That may be a relief to many but the UK can see temperatures into the high 20s Celsius even low 30s Celsius at this time of year. The June UK record is 35.6C and the May UK record is 32.8C but we haven’t seen anything like these values so far this year.
There was one anomalous day, mid-May when London Heathrow reached 27.5C. Heat had been building over Spain and Portugal, spreading up through France and then it reached the UK on the 17th. There are signs of a similar surge of heat building for the middle of next week. Southern Spain is already hot, with temperatures in local hotspots nearing 40C.
AEMET, the Spanish Met. service has just issued heatwave warnings "Ola de Calor" due to a stable anticyclone, strong sunshine and heat from North Africa. This will be very warm, dry air with dust. Majorca could see in the mid 30sC and local hotspots inland Andalucia could see over 40C. France sees temperatures rising next week moving from the 20sC into the low 30sC with brilliant sunshine.
This heat is already causing issues with 2,000 people evacuated in Andalucía and several roads have been closed. There are widespread warnings of Extreme Fire danger. This relates to how the conditions are and currently, they are ripe for wildfires. Across Europe, there are dry regions with drought indicators showing rainfall or soil moisture deficits.
The river levels in England have risen back near to normal in many parts after being lower than normal in May. SW England and Wales are still dry. Eastern Scotland now has on water scarcity alerts. The airflow looks to continue from the west/southwest with plenty more showers for NW Scotland, but dry this weekend for most other areas.
The promise of heat next week, or just a bit more warmth, for the UK is often greeted with cheer and excitement. A taste of summer on the way! There are thresholds for an official UK heatwave and it needs to be at least three days. There are signs that the warmth could last from Wednesday through until Saturday, if the push of fresher air from a low to the north takes its time to shove the warmth plume away from the UK eastwards.
Midweek temperatures could reach 27 to 30C in southeast England, 25 to 28C across inland southern Britain. The GFS shows temperatures throughout mainland Britain from 18 to 25C. The heat from the south could be accompanied by thundery plumes, although this far ahead there is low confidence with that and little detail. Consider the ingredients being on the list for home delivery, if they arrive, they might cook up a thunderstorm.
The heat is already showing itself in southern Spain from North Africa. That will build through Spain from Sunday until Wednesday. Then a strong signal for higher UK temperatures for the second half of next week, but uncertainty about how long it will take for fresher Atlantic air to edge in from the west.
