The weather at the moment is following the same pattern, day after day. Low pressure moves in off the Atlantic, bimbles around for a few days, then is replaced by another one. That's keeping the weather unsettled. With showers or longer spells of rain on most days, the showers being given extra energy by increasingly strong May sunshine, meaning some big downpours and thunderstorms can develop.
Little is going to change through the upcoming week. We have low pressure over southern England today (Sunday). That's going to drift east into the North Sea tomorrow, but another small low will join the party to the west of Scotland. Wednesday is set to buck the trend a little, with fewer showers and more sunshine as a transient ridge of high pressure moves in. Unfortunately, that ridge will set up ahead of an ever-deepening low which'll arrive on Thursday, bringing potentially strong winds and a spell of persistent rain, before hanging around into the weekend to deliver us that familiar story of sunshine and showers.
If you're looking for the route out of this seemingly never-ending pattern, it's not especially clear at the moment. The ECMWF model this morning does build high pressure in over the UK and Ireland after next weekend, but most other models aren't quite so keen, delaying the arrival of something a bit less unsettled and a bit more summery until much nearer to the end of the month - although southern parts could see it sooner. We'll definitely be all over it and let you know as soon as there's some more certainty as to when a change is likely to arrive.
Back to the here and now, with low pressure over southern and central England, it's England and Wales that'll see the bulk of the shower activity. Scotland and Northern Ireland will still see some, but they should be fewer and further between, particularly away from southern Scotland. As we've had during many recent days, there is a threat of some beefy downpours and thunderstorms, so a detailed storm forecast has been issued.
Temperatures will peak at 11-15c generally this afternoon, quite disappointing for Mid-May, but in the sunnier spells, it should feel warm enough as there's some real strength to the sunshine now. Many, but not all of the showers will die out this evening and overnight, with some clear spells developing. Where they do, temperatures will drop away to 3-6c, but where it stays cloudy, 6-10c will be more like it.
Monday morning will then start with a handful of showers, but these will quickly multiply to become widespread by the afternoon. As ever, not everyone will catch one, and there'll be some decent spells of sunshine away from them. But if you do see one, you're likely to know about it with torrential downpours, hail, thunder and lightning all possible. Temperatures tomorrow are likely to be a touch up on today's values, with 13-17c more typical.
Tuesday will be a very similar day, but perhaps with slightly fewer showers than Monday, although some more general rain is likely to affect the north of Scotland. Wednesday then sees that brief ridge of high pressure arrive. It's not likely to be entirely shower free, but those that develop should be well scattered, with some long sunny spells developing for many parts of the country.
Thursday breaks that pattern, though, as low pressure moves in, bringing a spell of wind and rain, with the unsettled weather continuing as we end the week and move into the weekend.