The southeast in particular is likely to see some briefly much warmer temperatures during Friday and Saturday this week, but what about next week? The
ECMWF model this morning has thrown a bit of a curve ball by suggesting that some very warm air could head up across the UK by midweek, how likely is that to happen though?
A quick look at the model runs from this morning first. Here's the little swipe of warmer air forecast for Saturday, shown by the orange colours:
By Monday that's replaced by cooler air again:
It's into mid next week where the question marks arise - this particular run of the ECMWF pumps up the warmth:
But one run, from one model does not a heatwave make. Looking at the other forecasting models this morning, they don't really want to entertain the idea. Here's a map from the
GFS ensembles, showing a selection of different possibilities for next Wednesday and as you can see only a few have the warmer air reaching the UK.
So where does this leave us? Well as we're still a week+ away there will always be question marks but based on this morning's model output the chance of a very warm temperatures country wide looks pretty low. The most likely scenario is for a pretty similar pattern to this week, so unsettled with some heavy rain at times, some drier, sunnier spells though where temperatures are likely to reach the high-teens or low-twenties (still a touch warmer than average), with eastern regions perhaps in with the best chance chance of seeing temperatures rising a bit higher than that that at times.
More on all of this over the coming days, though. If you want to learn a little more about the forecasting models and discuss what they're showing the
model discussion forums on the Netweather community are a great place to head to.
