Firstly happy Valentine’s Day everyone, and if you are dreaming of a candlelit dinner tonight, you just maybe in luck, but for all the wrong reasons. If you’re not already underwater, or mending a hole in your roof, there are more gales later today which could mean further power cuts.
Parts of England, Wales and Ireland are already damp this morning and cloudy, but the heaviest rains (and strengthening SE winds) are just arriving in Devon, the Channel Islands and southern Ireland at 9am and all this rain will move northwards across N.Ireland, Wales and England today, Scotland this evening. Many places have had a cold start and with lighter winds over Scotland there is mist and fog in places. The northern half of Scotland is seeing the best of the sunshine this morning as elsewhere the mass of high cirrus cloud is spilling in ahead of today’s low pressure. AS the band of rain moves northwards it comes up against colder air and so there will be sleet and hill snow in the mix. With perhaps a few cms for north Wales and the Pennines and Peaks. Southwest England and southern Wales will see the heaviest rain this morning. N.Ireland will see some wintriness this morning before heavy rain sets in for the afternoon. The rain band only pivots over N.Ireland and so the rain just keeps going for the rest of the day, which could lead to localised flooding. The rain will also be over southern and southeastern England by lunchtime. The band moves up over the Midlands, East Anglia into northern England through the afternoon. Although SW Britain may see some breaks in the wet weather during the afternoon as the main rain band moves north, there will be plenty of sharp showers following on, bring more rain and hail. The main area of heavy rain will move central and southern Scotland for rush hour with sleet and wet snow mixed in. So there could be some horrid conditions on the roads, along the M8 ad for the border routes early evening. As the rain moves over northern Scotland tonight it will fall as snow above 300m, and the worst of the rain finally clears N.Ireland. It will be mild in southern Britain today at 11 or 12C but still cold further north with only 4 to 6C.
The Environment Agency continues to have Severe Flood warnings out, now 17, with the extra one for the River Severn in Gloucester and continuing for the River Thames and Somerset Levels.
Now, it not just the rain and flooding issues that are causing concerns today, it is also the winds. Gales from the SE set in for Wales and SW England with gusts of 60mph likely this morning for W.Wales and Cornwall. This afternoon the winds pick up; a severe gale E for the Irish Sea around the Isle of Man, N.Ireland in a strong E’ly during the afternoon to add to the rain, strong SE’ly for much of England and Wales. The worst of the winds are from mid afternoon onwards for southern Britain- do keep an eye on the Netweather Alert details. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=weather-alert-status;sess=
Severe gales from the South hit the south coast along the Western Channel with gusts of 70 perhaps 80mph. Falmouth, Portland Bill could see Storm force winds into the evening. This core of damaging winds move past the Dorset and Hampshire coast veering slightly SW. The whole of southern England and SE Britain faces a night of gale force winds, just the worst hitting the Channel coasts right along to Kent, into East Anglia in the small hours.
The strong/gale force SW winds continue into Saturday morning for eastern England and the Southeast with a strong Westerly across western parts. To start the weekend the low pressure moves slowly away towards Norway, so a cold Saturday for Scotland in a fresh to strong North wind. N.Ireland also has a blustery day with a strong NW wind, easing to fresh later in the day. The winds will bring showers, of rain, sleet, hail. There will be a band of showery rain moving across Wales and northern England where it will be heavy, becoming lighter and more patchy as it reaches the Midlands and SE England in the evening. For the Dorset coastline, there is a HIGH flood risk from the Env. Agency on Friday and Saturday due to a combination of large waves, high tides and gale force onshore winds.
The winds do ease off through Saturday night away from NE Britain where the fresh Westerly continues (strong for the N.Isles). Temperatures fall away to near freezing so ice is likely.
Sunday starts off fine and dry with eastern Britain having a sunny morning. Cloud and damp weather begins to spill in from the west with milder air and light southerly winds. By the evening it will be wet and blustery over N.Ireland and that unsettled weather spreads across the UK overnight. Then potentially a lull, some drier brighter weather through until midweek.
Anyone with chickens can start looking out for eggs this weekend as chooks traditionally lay Valentine’s Day to Bonfire night, and with some less windy weather the hens will be happier.