A settled start to the weekend will quickly give way to a potent Atlantic system. Expect a transition from summer warmth to autumnal gales as an unseasonably deep low-pressure system targets the UK on Monday.
A weekend of two distinct halves is on the way for the United Kingdom, culminating in a spell of unseasonably wet and windy weather more typical of autumn than early August. While Saturday is set to deliver fine, settled, and pleasantly warm summer conditions for most, it is the calm before the storm. All eyes are on a rapidly deepening area of low pressure, which the Met Office has named as Storm Floris that is set to sweep across the country on Monday, bringing a risk of gales and travel disruption.
The pattern for the start of the weekend is straightforward. A weak ridge of high pressure will extend across the UK, leading light winds, sunny spells and just a few showers which will most affect eastern parts.
However, out in the Atlantic, change is already afoot. A developing area of low pressure, originating near Newfoundland, is forecast to be scooped up by a powerful, southerly-displaced jet stream. This interaction is crucial, as it provides the upper-level energy - a process known as rapid cyclogenesis - for the system to quickly deepen as it tracks towards the UK. The result will be an unseasonably deep low-pressure by the time it arrives on our shores early next week.
Saturday: With high pressure in control, it will be a mostly dry day with generous spells of sunshine and only small amounts of fair-weather cloud. Winds will be light, allowing temperatures to climb into the high teens or low twenties Celsius quite widely, reaching 23-24C in the southeast. It will feel pleasantly warm and is certainly the day for any planned outdoor activities.
Sunday: A day of transition. The approaching Atlantic system will begin to make its presence felt from the west with fronts moving in from the west during the early hours and taking a good part of the day to clear southeast across the country. Behind the more steady rain will be sunshine and a scattering of showers - it'll be more breezy than Saturday.
Monday: This is when the main event arrives. The low-pressure centre is expected to track across or just to the northwest of the UK. This is an unusually low pressure reading for early August and will bring a spell of very windy weather, especially across the Northern half of for all parts of the UK. Gusts will widely be above 35-40mph, but increasing as you head north, with exposed parts of Scotland potentially seeing peak gusts of 70-80mph or so. An associated complex of frontal systems will bring spells of heavy rain, which, combined with the strong winds, will create hazardous travelling conditions and a risk of disruption. While air temperatures will remain near the seasonal average, the wind and rain will make it feel significantly cooler.
Through Next Week: The low is expected to pull away eastwards into the North Sea during Tuesday, but the UK will remain in a brisk and unstable westerly airflow. This will lead to a day of bright or sunny spells and blustery showers. The showers will be most frequent and heaviest in the north and west. It will remain windy, though the gales should have abated for most. Looking further ahead, there are tentative signs that high pressure may try to build back from the southwest towards the end of the week, potentially bringing a return to more settled and warmer conditions.
In summary, it's a real game of two halves. So, the advice is clear: make the most of the fine summer weather on Saturday. But be prepared for a significant deterioration from Sunday, peaking with a spell of unseasonably wild and disruptive weather on Monday that should not be underestimated. Keep up to date with the latest forecasts and any potential weather warnings.
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