The May temperature record in the UK is 32.8C and it looks like that could be beaten during this late May Bank Holiday weekend. Some regions will also meet the Heatwave criteria, which are defined as passing threshold temperatures over three consecutive days. The thresholds vary around the UK.
Southeast England has warmed up in the sunny spells 24C, but there has been a lot of frontal cloud over much of the UK. Aberdeenshire is managing to peak out of the cloud cover with 20C. The difference, starting on Friday, will be much warmer air, and then more sunshine at the weekend.
You can see the clear skies over western Europe. France has seen temperatures around 25 to 30C on Thursday. Temperatures in Spain are already in the high 20s, low 30s Celsius and forecast to rise past the mid 30sC. Sadly, a young girl has already died of heatstroke in NW Spain after accidentally being left in a car.
Variations on the MOGREPS model for max temperatures Sunday and Monday, in the Bank Holiday weekend.
The first alerts for the health and social care sector, responders etc have been issued by the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) in England. As many people will be enjoying a long weekend off work, the high temperatures could impact on the health and well-being of the population. Early warnings, flagging this hot spell, are important as pharmacists and GP surgeries may be closed. Certain vulnerable groups could struggle in the days of heat and seek extra assistance. These Heat-Health alerts are not the same as the Met Office’s severe weather warnings, even if they do use the same yellow/amber/red system.
A major report was issued this week, “A Well-Adapted UK* - The Fourth Independent Assessment of UK Climate Risk” on adapting to the impacts of global heating.
“The UK was built for a climate that no longer exists today and will be increasingly distant in years to come. Cooling to protect from heat, increased flood preparedness, and improved water management are the highest priorities. Deploying these adaptations at scale will help avoid loss of life…New buildings should be designed to keep people cool from the outset.”
What can be difficult is when temperatures don’t ease by night. A Tropical Night is defined when the overnight temperature does not fall below 20C. This brings extra stress that “can have a profound impact on human health”. Our homes are insulated for cold weather in winter, to save energy but few have air conditioning or even ceiling fans. Closing the curtains is the main defence for most British homes.
“...not every possible adaptation will be affordable. Government needs to lead a public dialogue about the level of resilience people expect and their willingness to pay for it…Increasingly extreme and frequent heatwaves are the greatest risk to health in the UK from climate change. Annual heat-related excess deaths in heatwave periods already range from 1,400–3,000 each year, overwhelmingly concentrated among the elderly.”
The UK is likely to see temperatures into the low 30s Celsius over the long weekend with 33 or 34C possible. Thinking back to last week when we were moaning in temperatures of 12 or 13C this is an extraordinary leap. And even from the pleasant high teens to low 20s C of today, to get up into the low 30sC so quickly in the next few days, that didn’t used to happen. It used to take time for temperatures to slowly rise a degree or so each day. Now they seem to vault upwards. This is a surge of very warm air combined with clear skies and sunshine. The record for May was set back in 1944.
It won’t be as warm or settled for northwestern Scotland. Grey, damp, even wet weather will pester the NW Highlands and Western Isles and at times the Northern Isles. Temperatures here will remain at 12 to 16C but it won’t rain for the whole weekend. More recent runs of the UKV model have had longer, drier spells. Elsewhere there will be a lot of fine and dry weather.
Other things to consider for this Bank Holiday weekend are sunscreen, wildfire risk and water safety. Many people will welcome the fine, warm and sunny weather but just think about UV Protection. Fire and Rescue teams don't want to be tackling an accidental fire in 30 degree heat because of someone’s disposable barbecue or discarded cigarette. Please take care in the countryside as we enter another period of dry weather.
SSTs Sea Surface Temperatures around the UK
This time of year, water bodies and the seas around our coasts have yet to warm up with a lag compared to temperatures over land. It will still be chilly in the water, especially compared to the warm sunshine.
The RNLI said this week, “We’d always encourage people to choose a lifeguarded beach and swim between the red and yellow flags. If you’re new to surfing, head between the black and white flags.” and for people to go over their Float to Live advice.
On land, temperatures for Friday, Saturday, Sunday and Bank Holiday Monday
Edinburgh 19C 20C 23C 20C Belfast 19C 19C 21C 21C
Birmingham 25C 25C 28C 29C Cardiff 22C F 25C 28C 29C
London 28C 29C 31C 32C
If you like the heat and sunshine, have a fabulous Spring Bank Holiday.
*The Climate Change Committee (CCC) is an independent, statutory body established under the Climate Change Act 2008. Our purpose is to advise the UK and devolved governments on emissions targets and to report to Parliament on progress made in reducing greenhouse gas emissions and preparing for and adapting to the impacts of climate change.
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