It has been a raw, uncomfortable Wednesday across much of southern Britain, and the next 18 hours or so need watching closely. Four Met Office Yellow warnings are running simultaneously this afternoon and evening: rain across southern England, snow for Wales and central England, a combined rain and snow warning for Northern Ireland, and an ice warning for Wales and western England that kicks in as conditions clear overnight. None have been upgraded to Amber at the time of writing, but all four overlapping at once makes for a busy, potentially disruptive spell before things calm down later in the week.
The system responsible is Storm Pedro, named by Meteo-France rather than the Met Office, with the worst of its winds (gusting 75 mph) aimed at France and Iberia. We are on the northern fringe, but that fringe is still delivering plenty, particularly where the incoming Atlantic moisture runs into the cold air already sitting over central parts of the country.
Across southern England, the main concern remains rain: 10 to 20 mm falling widely, up to 50 mm possible over Dartmoor. For already saturated catchments in Somerset, Dorset, and Wiltshire, that is the last thing anyone needs. The Environment Agency currently has 63 flood warnings and 169 flood alerts in force across England. The Somerset Levels remain under a major incident declaration, with heavy-duty pumps at Dunball shifting 10 tonnes of floodwater per second just to keep pace.
Go further north and west and the picture turns wintry. The snow warning for Wales and central England runs until 06:00 Thursday, covering a broad area from mid-Wales through to Oxfordshire and the West Midlands. Above 150 to 200 metres, 2 to 5 cm is possible. Above 250 to 300 metres across the hills of southeast Wales, Herefordshire, and Shropshire, that rises to 10 to 15 cm. At lower levels, a dusting of under 2 cm is on the cards from later this evening into the small hours, though accumulating snow in the valleys is far from certain. The Met Office has classified this one as very low likelihood but medium impact, which feels about right: most people are unlikely to see any disruption, but for some it could cause problems on the roads.
The models have not been agreeing on the precise track of this low, and that matters. One solution keeps the heaviest precipitation pinned to the south coast; another drags it up through the Midlands and East Anglia. Who gets rain and who gets snow depends almost entirely on which track verifies, and it is why forecasters have been hedging carefully all week.
Blustery east to northeasterly winds are adding to the chill, bringing coastal gales along the English Channel and gusts of 45 to 55 mph across Northern Ireland. Up on the hills it is harsh: wind chill of -13 to -15C across the Peak District summits, and worse still on the Brecon Beacons and Cairngorms. Not a day for the tops unless you know what you are doing.
By Thursday morning, the rain, sleet, and snow will be clearing eastwards. Watch out for ice on untreated surfaces overnight as temperatures drop below freezing behind the departing front. Once that clears, Thursday itself should be a decent day for many, with sunshine developing through the afternoon, though that cold easterly wind will take its time fading.
And then everything changes. Atlantic low pressure takes charge from Friday, pulling in a southwesterly flow and lifting temperatures sharply. After highs of just 3 to 5C on Wednesday and Thursday, the south could be looking at 10 to 11C by Friday evening, climbing to 13 to 15C in any weekend sunshine. That is a swing of 10 degrees in about 48 hours.
Milder air off the Atlantic never arrives dry, though, and Saturday and Sunday will be unsettled, with further spells of rain and a freshening breeze. Western and northwestern areas will bear the brunt; the east and southeast should stay relatively sheltered. But after the raw cold and wintry hazards of this week, a drizzly 14C is going to feel remarkably mild. It is half-term for parts of the UK, and while the weekend will not be wall-to-wall sunshine, it will be a far cry from what midweek is greeting us with.
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