A battleground looks to play out in the days ahead across the UK between a large high pressure system extending west from Siberia and a queue of lows coming in from the west, thanks to an increasingly powerful jet stream moving east out of the Eastern Seaboard of North America across the North Atlantic and on into western Europe.
High pressure extending west over NE Europe this week will be too far away to prevent low pressure systems moving in off the Atlantic close to the southwest before being forced north or northwest across Ireland due to the blocking high pressure to the east and northeast over Scandinavia.
High pressure block to the east and northeast this week will keep low pressure slow moving near UK
This means frontal systems moving in from the Atlantic could be rather slow to move on, so some areas could see quite a bit of rain this week. Higher ground of eastern Scotland is looking particularly prone to some large rainfall totals from mid-week, thanks to a persistent moist southeasterly flow, with slow-moving frontal zone and the mountains creating lift of the prolonged feed of moist air. The Met Office has a yellow warning for rain in force between noon Wednesday and noon Friday for Grampian, Central, Tayside and Fife for as much as 80-120mm over higher ground.
Other areas of the UK could see a fair bit of rain too, especially southwestern and western areas, particularly higher ground where 40-60mm could fall.
It will become windier too this week, as areas of low pressure move into the the southwest, then drift north over Ireland, we are keeping an eye on a possible rapidly deepening low on Friday moving north in across Ireland, which could bring gales here and across SW England, south Wales and Irish Sea coasts.
Into the weekend and the battleground may shift. This week, the Atlantic has the upper hand, bringing relatively mild, wet and windy conditions for many. But as we head into Sunday, the balance looks to shift increasingly in favour of blocking high pressure to the northeast asserting more influence further west across the North Sea and over northern UK. This extension west of high pressure from Scandinavia will tend to force further lows moving towards the UK southeastwards into France and Spain into early next week.
This may allow cold air to flood west over the North Sea from Scandinavia, initially the coldest of this air flooding across the north and northeast on Sunday, but perhaps cold air flooding across all areas on Monday, perhaps cold enough for snow too, but uncertainty over this.
With cold air looking increasingly likely to be in place across much of the UK early next week, but further areas of low pressure trying to move back in across the UK from the Atlantic, we may see another push of the battleground between cold from the east and mild air from the west, but where this happens could bring a snow event. Too far out to say where could be affected. The cold may try to push back west again through the week.
So a proper war of competing airmasses next week, as milder air from the Atlantic and cold continental air from the east try to take hold across the UK. Given how cold air is spreading west out of a very cold NW Russia and NE Europe, a good chance the cold and denser air may have the upper hand this time, compared to previous battles between the Atlantic and colder air from the east. But, a great deal of uncertainty still how long any incursion of cold continental air from the east will take hold. Particularly as there is quite a lot of energy piling across the Atlantic with a powerful jet stream bringing low after low towards western Europe. The balance of power still yet to be decided!
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