This week is all about the Atlantic influence on the UK with bouts of wet and windy weather. There have been murmourings, with brief pockets of stifled excitement, about whether deep cold from Russia could reach across to the UK later this month. The jury is still out on this with plenty of swaying and disagreement on the models. The ECMWF model shows a colder easterly turn through the weekend but a northerly chill by next Thursday . The GFS is slower with cold air from the east reaching across the North Sea by next Monday but a balance of keeping that in place or a push frmo the Atlnatic winning out again. Either of these setups could bring some snow, showers across the North Sea or wider snowfall as an incoming frontal band hits the cold air. A lot of ifs and buts in all of this.
“Strong winds may cause some disruption, especially to travel, during Tuesday.” MO SW England
For this working week there is a low pressure approaching from the southwest Monday night into Tuesday. The Met Office already has a yellow wind warning, covering most of Cornwall, SW Devon and western counties of Wales. It is now a week and a half since Storm Goretti hit the southwest of England with gusts near to 100mph in the height of the storm. The hard-hit Isles of Scilly are mentioned in the warning
“a band of heavy rain will reach the Isles of Scilly before dawn and move east through the day, accompanied by inland wind gusts of 45-55 mph and possibly 60-65 mph over the most exposed hills and coasts.” MO
Those higher gusts are accompanying the band of rain, not just for the Isles of Scilly but there could still be some trees that were weakened, or possibility of further landslips.
The low is rather slow moving, rotating close to Ireland and a secondary low centre will keep conditions unsettled through the middle of the week. The GFS Model shows another low pressure moving in from the Atlantic which will bring more wind and rain but also steer an eastern flow over Grampian. This could bring heavy rain and snow to NE Scotland on Friday and into Saturday for the far north.
“Persistent and heavy rain over hills later Wednesday and through Thursday and Friday may lead to some flooding” MO Weds - Friday NE Scotland
The ECMWF model shows a southerly flow around the main Atlantic low on Wednesday lifting temperatures in southern Britain into double figures. However, next the backing of the flow with persistent precipitation into northeastern Britain, particularly over the Grampians, produces high rainfall totals and snowfall for higher ground in colder air from the east.
Monday
We’ve had a mixed picture across the UK for Monday with bands of showery rain extending north south, with a sunny gap inbetween bringing cheery winter sunshine. There has been a lot of low cloud and grey murk. The occluded front over Ireland will bring heavier bursts by teatime to Cornwall, Pembrokeshire and Northern Ireland as it begins to edge northwards. The other front will bring rain to the West Midlands and NW England this evening but both bands will br fragmenting as they edge over Scotland during Monday night.
Before dawn on Tuesday, the first low pressure will be impacting the Isles of Scilly and the top of Cornwall. There will be remnant showers over northern mainland Scotland and a scattering for SE Britain but for much of the UK. Northern Ireland could see a frost, with some fog patches under clear spells with very light winds.
The frontal rain, strong winds and high gusts will move from the far southwest over more of the West Country, western Wales, over the Irish Sea and up into Northern Ireland. By lunchtime, it will be windy for the southwestern half of the UK and breezy for eastern Britain. The UKV model has the rainband moving over more of Wales and Northern Ireland with gales through the Irish Sea. In these southeasterly winds there could be isolated spray and wave overtopping for exposed coasts.
Through Tuesday night, the frontal band continues to edge northeastwards with blustery winds and some wintryiness on the tops of the Pennines and Trossachs.
By Wednesday morning there should be one low centre to the west of Ireland and another to the SW of Wales. Northern Scotland will be in fresh to strong SE winds as wet and widny weather surges northwards over southern Britain. There could be a short spell of strong and gusty winds onto the coast of Hampshire or Dorset.
Wednesday ends with a lot of cloudy, damp weather. It will still be windy but with the milder flow form the south. The far north/NE of Scotland will see strong SE winds and gales to end the day and this very windy weather will extend to NE Britain by Thursday morning. By Friday morning there could be strong lee gusts for western Scotland making it feel colder.
There will be a drive of precipitation onto the high ground of NE Scotland from Wednesday onwards.
Scottish Flood forecast “periods of persistent & heavy rain from Wednesday could result in significant flooding across central and northeast Scotland. Persistent rain is expected to continue until Friday.”
By Friday it looks like the flow will be from the east with colder air and more snow over the high ground, but icy rain and sleet at lower levels for NE Britain into the Northern Isles.
For the next few days there will be wet weather for parts of the UK, strong winds with the warning in the south west but this persistent precipitation for NE Scotland from mid week onwards accompanied by colder air from the east.
Don't go wishing you were elsewhere for better weather. AEMET, the Spanish met. service has named Storm (Borrasca) Harry in the Mediterranean. There are amber wind and rain warnings for Ibiza, Mallorca and Menorca and warnings for difficult coastal conditions around the Balearic Islands and Costas at this western end of the Mediterranean.
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