A fine, warmer weekend just watching low pressure from the south on Sunday

May has thrown all sorts of weather at us so far but this weekend looks warm and mostly sunny, just something to watch on Sunday from the south. So far in May, there was the top temperature so far this year, on the 1st, when Kew Gardens saw 29.3C (85F) in last week’s burst of heat and sunshine. (We’re not expecting that heat this weekend.) Next, a dramatic change over the Bank Holiday weekend as a northerly set in. This brisk wind made the air feel cold, despite bright sunshine, and even brought snow showers to the Cairngorms. With sub-zero temperatures for some spots for the start of Bank Holiday Monday, you might have been tempted to put the heating on - just to take the edge off the chill. It will warm up for the end of the week but the nights will still be cool. 

Losing the chilly north wind this week, high pressure still keeping the UK weather dry for most but watching the Low from the Bay of Biscay

Midweek and Friday evening

With high pressure right over the UK, the cold wind is easing. The sun’s rays at this time of year are strong and it can soon feel warm in sheltered spots. There is still a lot of cloud trapped under this high pressure for the middle of the week with a few showers coming off the North Sea to eastern England. By Friday there will be more sunshine and less of a breeze allowing the daytime temperatures to respond. Many areas will be in the mid to high teens with 20 or 21C possible for parts of England even Scotland. 

There will be a cool easterly wind along the Thames Estuary and for Kent but for much of the UK Friday evening will be fine, will feel warmer but soon cool off once the sun disappears.

The weekend

This easterly flow off the North Sea will make the air feel cooler for coasts and through East Anglia on Saturday. It will be a fine, sunny Saturday with mostly light winds and feeling warm in the sunshine. Temperatures will be up a notch again 18 to 22C away from the east coast. The high pressure begins to slip away over Scandinavia on Saturday as another low pressure develops close to northern Spain. A low pressure near to Iceland will be twirling its weather fronts towards the Western Isles by the end of the week with a southwesterly breeze. These fronts will bring a bit more cloud to the far northwest of the UK on Saturday and could produce some showers for Northern Ireland and along the Great Glenn but many parts will stay dry. 

There will be a balance on Saturday as the high fades, will the frontal band in the northwest be a stronger influence with more cloud, showers and a SW wind or will it be the low in the Bay of Biscay taking charge and more of England feeling the easterly wind?

Saturday night will be clear and cool.

Sunday

For many Sunday will be another fine, warm day with sunshine and dry weather. There are a few things to keep an eye on, mainly the low from near Spain as it edges north. With uninterrupted sunshine, temperatures will again be in the high teens, and low twenties. Some parts of England could warm to the mid-twenties, say 24 or 25C for the West Midlands, along the M4 corridor into central southern England. However, this low pressure would bring more cloud and outbreaks of rain, even heavy, thunder downpours and again the easterly flow off the North Sea would pick up. There does look to be a chance of rain for the Channel Islands on Sunday, into southwest England and southern counties of Ireland but other parts of southern Britain would do well to keep an eye on this part of the forecast. The UKV model does have a pocket of low cloud moving up the east coast of Britain on Sunday, from Lincolnshire to eastern Scotland which would also interrupt the sunny skies and make it feel cooler. 

Fire risk continues

Fires from Copernicus satellite data in last 7 days. 

The lack of rain continues. Although fine, dry weather with warm sunshine can be ideal for outdoor activities there has to be a niggle now about the lack of rain. Once more there are warnings about the risk of wildfires as the ongoing dry conditions mean that an accidental fire would spread rapidly. There are pleas to not light disposable barbeques or campfires and to take great care with any naked flame.