Cold Arctic air with a low risk of snow in the south midweek

It’s been a chilly night with temperatures around zero for many parts of the UK. The next few nights will be colder as the Arctic air from the north tightens its grip. Ice will be a major issue. This cold flow is around a significant low pressure over Oslo, bringing disruptive snow to southern Scandinavia. There are warnings for heavy snow and ice and for Denmark hurricane-force gusts and severe thunderstorms. There have been wintry showers for the UK with larger clusters, even meso-circulations developing in the cold air heading south and east overnight. 

These have brought icy rain, wet snow and the risk of ice for Tuesday morning. Northern Scotland continues in the grip of winter with more snowfall adding to its blanket of snow and icy routes. 

The Winter fleets have been busy working on roads across northern Scotland for over a week now, gritting and clearing after significant snow. And there are more snow showers to come from the north. A heavier band could move from Grampian down to SE Scotland and throw a few wintry showers over NE England this afternoon but mostly the focus is from the north and west today. It will feel cold for areas exposed to the wind

Areas prone to snow showers today and accumulations, mostly over high ground

For most of the UK, it will be a fair, chilly day with sunshine or bright skies. For eastern England and the south coast, the westerly breeze will add to the chill even though there will be a lot of fine, winter weather once the overnight clusters have faded. One moved across Greater London around 9am. Showers continue to feed off the sea over SW England and Wales. At low levels they are just rain but up over the Moors and mountains there will be more snow, especially for Eryri National Park (Snowdonia). A rash of rain. sleet and hill snow showers continues for Northern Ireland today and they head across the Irish Sea towards northwest England and north Wales with more cloud.

It will be a day for looking at the radar to see where the heavier showers are and how they are moving, and watching the sky. Are the clouds gathering, the sky darkening? Before a shower arrives and then moves on and the brightness returns. 

Tonight

The feed of showers eases down tonight. Just a few more from the Irish Sea to Merseyside, to the north coast of Northern Ireland and a scattering for northern Scotland. Elsewhere it will be cold and still as pressure rises ahead of a new Atlantic system from the southwest. There will be fog, even freezing fog in places. Northern Ireland and the North Midlands look likely. 

Wednesday

For most, it will be a sunny or bright, dry day. It will be cold after the frosty start but the lack of wind will be a bonus. The interesting part of the forecast is the Atlantic system heading for northern France that could brush southern England on its path eastwards. The cold air is in place over the UK, whilst France will be expecting a wet Wednesday in a milder airmass.

The significant low pressure remains over southern Norway, that’s one anchor. A ridge of high pressure is trying to extend from Greenland to Iceland but will take until later this week to reach over us. For the frontal band to reach far over southern Britain it has to push against this set-up when its momentum is eastwards. The charts look to tease as the precipitation band flirts across the Channel on Wednesday. Different models and runs inspire hope or frustration for those hoping for snow inland at low levels in the south.

Dartmoor looks likely to see snow, it’s high ground and close to an initial push north of the band. If the band does nudge inland, the South Downs could see a bit of snow and Sussex/Kent might catch something as the whole lot pulls away later in the day.

“A weather system may push snow into some southern counties of England on Wednesday, which could then prove disruptive.” MO

The Met Office issued an early heads-up yellow warning for a very low risk (Unlikely) of snow with the potential for Medium impacts. 

“Rain or sleet is more likely near coasts. Note that there is still a possibility that the weather system, and associated rain or snow, may remain further south across the English Channel.”

That’s the setup, it could come to nothing or just a bit of icy rain brushing the south coast, but if it does shift thirty miles inland then there would be issues on the roads. Plenty of uncertainty, again worth watching the Radar. More chat in the forum about the weather models output for midweek. Northern Scotland will see snow showers through Wednesday into Thursday with an even colder night across the UK.