Hurricane Rafael has passed over western Cuba, only a few weeks since Hurricane Oscar hit the eastern end of the island. Power outages were already common, news will be slow to appear.
Hurricane Rafael hit western Cuba on Wednesday 6th November after passing west of Jamaica and across the Cayman Islands this week. Rafael strengthened to major hurricane status, a Category 3 hurricane and Mariel, Cuba recorded sustained winds of 80mph and a gust of 115mph as the eye passed.
“NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1000 AM EST Wed Nov 06 2024 Rafael expected to become a major hurricane before landfall in western Cuba. Life-threatening storm surge, damaging hurricane-force wind and flash flooding expected.”
With torrential rain forecast, there were warnings of mudslides. As Rafael arrived the high winds knocked out the fragile electricity network leaving the entire island in darkness once more. The regular power outages must affect how warning information is communicated. Without mobile phones, television and radio, how would people know a hurricane is on the way?
“Then comes more news: a hurricane nearby! Just as if being without power 24 hours a day with all it entails weren’t enough.” Lien Estrada Coping without Electricity in Cuba
"...CENTER OF RAFAEL MOVING THROUGH THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF ARTEMISA…" NHC Weds 6th Nov
The hurricane passed over the western end of Cuba but only last month the other end was hit by Hurricane Oscar.
Recent Hurricane Oscar
Cuba already has a complex national energy situation. When Cat. 1 Oscar hit on Oct 20th in the far east of the islands, it severely affected nearly half a million people, with about 150,00 suffering critical damage. Regions that suffered from drought were hit by severe rainfall and damaging winds. News from Cuba will take time to appear after Cat 3. Rafael but the lack of electricity will affect access to drinking water and also food and health services.
“Thousands of people have lost all their belongings and goods, including food, cooking equipment, water storage containers, hygiene products, mattresses, and household appliances.” ReliefNet report on Hurricane Oscar
Heavy rains and dangerous conditions will hamper search and rescue efforts. Rafael passed to the west of densely populated Havana on the north of the island with a gust of 71mph reported at the International Airport and a 93mph gust nearby.
It would be expected that agriculture and food processing facilities will have been severely damaged, making access to food and people's livelihoods more difficult, as happened in Oscar. Also, damage to hospitals and schools with a higher risk of disease due to the impacted sanitation.
The Hurricane Season
Back in May 2024, the NOAA National Weather Service forecasters at the Climate Prediction Center predicted above-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin this year.
"NOAA’s outlook for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, which spans from June 1 to November 30, predicts an 85% chance of an above-normal season, a 10% chance of a near-normal season and a 5% chance of a below-normal season.
NOAA is forecasting a range of 17 to 25 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, 8 to 13 are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher) including 4 to 7 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). Forecasters have a 70% confidence in these ranges."
Rafael is the 17th named storm of this Atlantic season, the 11th hurricane this season and the 5th major hurricane.
What next for Rafael?
As we await news from Cuba, there has been heavy rain over the Florida Keys. Rafael is now forecast to
“meander over the south-central Gulf of Mexico this weekend and early next week. Interests in the southern and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system." NHC
Mexico will stay on alert but will Rafael be the last of the season?
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