Rain clearing but flooding may continue, drier Saturday, but wind and rain returns Sunday

Persistent rain across NE England yesterday dropped over 70mm of rain over the North York Moors, while heavy showers and thunderstorms that affected large parts of England and Wales further south yesterday merged into longer spells of rain across the Midlands that persisted overnight – with close to a month’s worth of rain falling in 24 hours in parts of the Midlands and NE England.

24 hour rainfall totals from rain gauges - data courtesy of Starling Roost Weather

This additional rain on top of excessive rainfall across parts of the Midlands earlier in the week, when over a month’s worth of rain fell in a few hours from thunderstorms locally on Sunday and persistent rain fell widely all day on Monday, is unsurprisingly leading to flooding and travel disruption this morning. The M5 is closed northbound near Bristol due to flooding, while several roads and streets are still flooded this morning across parts of the Midlands.

There are currently 60 flood warnings across England, most of them in the Midlands and NE England.

Fortunately the rain will clear south from southern areas this morning, followed by drier and sunnier conditions from the north across all parts this afternoon, but with the wind switching to a northerly direction, it will be colder today, with temperatures reaching the low teens at best.

Cold widely tonight, with temperatures falling into single figures, low single figures in the north – which will lead to a frost in places by dawn.

Thankfully, with a ridge of high pressure building in, Saturday is looking mostly dry with sunny spells across the UK, though there will be showers in the northwest, frequent across western Scotland.

A ridge of high pressure builds in on Saturday, bringing mostly dry and fine weather, before a deep low moves in later on Sunday, bringing more rain and wind.

Sunday looks to start promising, with a mostly dry and bright morning, but a deep low over the Atlantic will arrive in the southwest approaches of the British Isles during the afternoon and evening, introducing wet and windy conditions from the west across England and Wales. Fortunately the low will be in its deepest phase to the west of Ireland and will fill / weaken as it arrives over southern Britain. But there will still be a risk of gales, particularly up through the Irish Sea and around coasts of southern England. Outbreaks of heavy rain will also spread across large parts of England and Wales during the afternoon, evening and overnight, though the far north of England and Scotland could stay dry until Monday. This additional rain falling on already saturated ground and flowing straight into already high rivers and streams – could lead to more flooding.

Rain clearing east from southern areas on Monday but may linger across northern England and southern Scotland. The rest of the week may be drier, as high pressure builds in, though showers may linger towards SE England and East Anglia for a time.

Helene has weakened into a Tropical Storm – but strong winds and heavy rain will continue to bring a threat

Hurricane Helene made landfall across Florida’s Big Bend region on the Gulf coast in the northwest of the state last night as powerful category 4 storm, with maximum sustained winds of 140 mph.  Cedar Key, a small coastal community north of Tampa, experienced one of the highest rises in water levels, with an observation site reporting a surge of more than 10 feet. In nearby Steinhatchee, photos showed mobile homes being tossed around in a storm surge estimated to be greater than 8 feet.

Helene has now weakened into a Tropical Storm as it continues to move across Georgia this morning, though high winds and rain are still a threat.

A state of emergency has been declared in 61 of Florida's 67 counties, and several are under evacuation orders.

A driver was killed after a sign fell onto their car in Tampa last night. In Wheeler County, Georgia, two people died when an apparent tornado overturned a mobile home. While emergency services rescued about 40 people from fast-rising waters in Pasco County, Florida, north of Tampa.

Parts of western North Carolina could see historic flooding from extreme rainfall rates as Tropical Storm Helene drifts north across the mountainous terrain of the southern Appalachians which will bring flash floods, landslides, & cause extensive river / stream flooding. Rainfall totals over the area of 6 to 12 inches, with isolated totals around 20 inches.