Much of Spain, Portugal and the Canary Islands are under heat warnings for the middle of this week. Maximum temperatures range from 34 to 42C, possibly even 44C for the interior of Spain on Wednesday. Whilst hot air from northern Africa is reaching Iberia, the UK is still being influenced by air from the Atlantic with more cloud and showery outbreaks of rain. Spain has a more stable set-up, not much cloud and so plenty of sunshine, very light winds allowing the heat to build by day and overnight. Later this week the real heat from Africa and Iberia will extend through the Mediterranean; over Italy, the Alps, the Balkans and into Greece.
We do have some warm air over the UK today but there is also incoming cloud and outbreaks of rain from the west. It will feel fresher and become more unsettled for Thursday.
Warmer air will reach through France at the weekend but the main driver for high temperatures in the UK will be more sunshine and steadier conditions. When the skies clear and the winds are light, then the temperatures will rise on Sunday.
It doesn’t look like we will see a surge of heat from Africa this week. Next week there are signs that this could happen, bringing higher temperatures and muggy air, particularly to England.
Europe
The Canary Islands have yellow and amber heat warnings from AEMET with temperatures in the 30sC. It is sunny and dry midweek with temperatures forecast to reach 35, even 36C on Gran Canaria on Thursday. Night-time temperatures will stay above 20C in places with some resorts closer to 24C, which is very warm for sleeping. There is some easing at the weekend. Tenerife 27C by day and Lanzarote 28C with a bit more cloud about as the breeze shifts to the north.
For Mainland Spain, the peak of the heat will be midweek with real warmth overnight. Barcelona will be around 30C but could get hotter next Tuesday onwards. Mallorca will be in the low 30sC but hotter next week. Northern Spain evades most of the heat this week with more cloud and outbreaks of rain but there are signs of heat early next week for Bilbao.
In Portugal on Wednesday 37C was forecast with a heat warning from IPMA. Saturday will be closer to 26C with temperatures rising into the low 30sC for the new week. The Algarve has an amber heat warning today with up to 39C but temperatures slip to 33C at the weekend, still very warm with plenty of sunshine.
UK weekend
Friday evening looks warm and fine for much of England and Wales. There could be the odd lingering shower but it will be Northern Ireland and Scotland seeing the main scattering of showers in the afternoon and evening. Here the showers will be slow-moving and there is the risk of heavy downpours, even thundery ones.
On Saturday there will be light winds, high cloud and temperatures in the high teens to low twenties. Showers will break out again for the northern half of Scotland but there could be some lively downpours in a showery band over SW England, Wales and northern England. It will be a fair day but with this unease of showers lurking. Overnight will be fresh as the flow of air is still from the west/SW.
Sunday looks warmer with light winds and sunshine. It should be dry for most with temperatures into the mid 20sC. London could see 26C.
As high pressure builds close to southern Britain the temperatures will rise next week with more sunshine, light winds and a steer of warmer air from the continent.
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