Heavy and persistent rain will spread northeast across much of England and Wales tonight, clearing for a time Friday morning, before more rain spreads southeast through the day. Turning colder from the north this weekend, but mostly dry and sunny. Risk of frost overnight.
The weather is on the change across all parts over the next few days. Cloud and rain will affect the south to end the week, especially from this evening and through tomorrow, with a rain warning out for torrential rain, but it will remain warm. For the north, it’s a cooler, breezy but brighter picture to end the week, though with some blustery showers in the northwest. If anything, it will turn chillier later tomorrow – as winds turn northerly.
Warm air hangs on across the south until end of week, before colder air all the way from the arctic floods south across all parts
Friday’s rain in the south will clear by Saturday, then northerly flow all the way from the arctic will flood south across all parts, bringing a chillier feel for all by day and risk of frost overnight. There will even be some snow falling from showers over higher parts in northern Scotland. It could be a bit of a shock for some in the south, which have been used to summer-like temperatures for weeks, but the colder weather won’t be anything out of the ordinary for mid-October. Such has the weather been abnormally warm.
For now, quite the contrast earlier this morning between north and south. -2.2C at Eskdalemuir in southern Scotland, 18C at Lydd Airport in Kent. A cold front lying east-west across southern England separates colder and clearer weather to the north for today and cloud, damp and warm weather that will linger all day to the south. The boundary between the two different airmasses can be clearly seen on the satellite image below.
In more detail for today: a cloudy, misty and occasionally damp but warm day for south Wales, Midlands, southern England and East Anglia – with some patchy outbreaks of rain spreading east. Some heavier burst this morning from the south Midlands east into East Anglia, but generally any rain tending to become more lighter and more patchy. More persistent and increasingly heavy outbreaks of rain looks to move in across SW England and south Wales this evening. Despite the cloud, fairly warm, with temperatures reaching 15-18C.
A different picture today for north Wales and the North Midlands northwards across northern areas. After a cold but bright start this morning, with a local frost in sheltered spots of northern England, southern and central Scotland – it will be a bright day today, with some decent sunny spells. However, there will be some showers and also windy for NW Scotland. Temperatures reaching 11-14C.
Then through the evening and overnight, widespread rain, locally heavy, will spread northeast across most of England and Wales, accompanied by strong winds. A weakening front moving southeast across Scotland will bring more in the way of cloud and a few showers, so a frost looks less likely than last night.
An area of low pressure will move northeast across central areas on Friday, with the associated fronts bringing further spells of rain, locally heavy and persistent. One batch of persistent and heavy rain along a warm front affecting much of England and Wales in the early hours will clear northeast from most areas of England. But a trailing occluded front and also a cold front moving down from the northwest will combine to bring a band of heavy rain that will linger through the morning and into the early afternoon across Wales and northern England, before the band of rain moves southeast across England and Wales through the afternoon and evening, perhaps with the odd rumble of thunder. Ahead of the rain moving down from the north, it will be quite warm, especially with any brightness that develops, temperatures reaching 19-20C across SE England and East Anglia.
A Met Office Yellow Warning for rain is in force between 9pm tonight and midnight Friday night for all of Wales and England south of a line between roughly Blackpool and Grimsby. The warning mentions:
Widely 10-20 mm of rain is likely, but in the wettest spots 30-50 mm is possible, and some high ground of West Wales could see 70 mm. Also a chance of 20-30 mm of rain within 2 hours if heavy showers and thunderstorms develop over southern England.
For Scotland and N. Ireland, a cooler and brighter picture, with some decent sunny spells, but also some scattered showers, most frequent across northern and western coasts, blowing down on a brisk north or northwesterly wind. Temperatures reaching 10-13C at best.
Turning colder across all parts over the weekend as northerly winds from the arctic flood down across all parts. It will be mostly dry with sunny spells both Saturday and Sunday, though showers will affect the far north and also western coastal areas. Showers will be wintry over higher ground of northern Scotland, with snow settling over the mountains. Turning cold everywhere at night where skies clear, with a risk of an air frost developing Saturday night and Sunday night for Scotand, N. Ireland, N England and Wales, ground frost in sheltered area elsewhere across England.
