After a mixed bag of a summer, meteorological Autumn is underway and is set to bring a summery spell of weather, with potentially the highest temperatures of 2023, with parts of the country crossing into heatwave territory.
As we head into September, we can look back upon the summer of 2023. The summer got off to a hot and sunny start for almost all of us. According to the Met Office's UK series, the UK had its hottest June on record in a temperature series from 1884, while in the longer-running Central England Temperature series from 1659, it was the hottest June since 1846. It was also the 4th sunniest in a sunshine series from 1911 and generally drier than average, although some thundery outbreaks raised rainfall totals close to or above average at some individual locations.
In stark contrast, July was very wet. For the UK as a whole, the 6th wettest in a series from 1836 and the wettest July since 2009. It was also a dull month, the dullest July since 2012. Much of our dullest, wettest and windiest weather coincided with the weekends, contributing to the general perception of a particularly poor month. Temperatures were not far from the long-term normal, but it is probable that the elevated global temperatures (it was easily the warmest July on record globally) and the record-breaking high sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic prevented us from having a very cool July. The heat became bottled up over southern Europe and north Africa, resulting in some big heatwaves around the Mediterranean and sometimes into parts of France and central Europe.
August was a lot closer to normal generally, but most parts of the UK had below-average sunshine, particularly in the south-west, and it was a wet month in Northern Ireland. It was not as dull as August 2021, however.
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Thunderstorms were widespread at times during mid to late June and the first half of July, but in the second half of the summer, thunderstorms were few and far between, with the emphasis being on steady frontal rainfall rather than showers and thunderstorms. The emphasis on frontal rain probably also contributed to the general shortage of sunshine through July and August.
Nonetheless, because of how sunny June was, the summer came out slightly sunnier than average for the UK as a whole. The relatively dry June failed to offset the wet July, and it was a wetter-than-average summer overall as a result. Thanks to the hot June, it was the 8th warmest summer on record for the UK, but as most people have their holidays in July and August, and there were a number of washout weekends, there was a widespread perception that it was a poor summer.
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This perception was probably also influenced by the comparison with Summer 2022, which had some record-breaking heatwaves and was generally drier and sunnier than average, particularly in August. August 2022 ranked as the 4th sunniest August on record for the UK and the sunniest since the famously hot, dry and sunny one in 1995. Summer 2023's highest temperature for the summer was a modest 32.2C, in stark contrast with the 40.3C set at Coningsby, Lincolnshire, on 19 July 2022. The heat of June 2023, while exceptional over the month as a whole, was consistent from around the 10th onwards, rather than featuring any individual record breaking hot days.
To many people, this has been a front-loaded summer with relatively little "summery" weather through July and August. But ironically, as we head into meteorological autumn and children prepare to return to school in England, Wales and Northern Ireland, some very summery weather will set in, with high-pressure building across the country this weekend and slowly drifting eastwards during next week, pulling some hot air masses in from the south.
We currently have plenty of cloud over much of central and southern England, east Wales and Northern Ireland, but already the majority of Scotland and northern England have sunshine. During the rest of today, as high pressure builds, we can expect sunshine to become more widespread, though it will tend to cloud over in northern Scotland, and parts of southern England may stay quite cloudy. Temperatures will generally reach between 21 and 23C, away from the cloudier areas. It will stay dry except in the far north-west of Scotland, with generally light winds.
Sunday looks set to be warmer for most, with most areas having plenty of sunshine, although it will be cloudy with some light rain for north-west Scotland, and parts of the south may be relatively cloudy at times. Temperatures in England and Wales and also north-east Scotland will widely reach around 24C.
Monday and Tuesday look set to be dry and sunny almost everywhere, with temperatures in England widely pushing into the high 20s Celsius. During mid to late week and into next weekend, it will become more changeable for western Scotland and Northern Ireland, but elsewhere it will remain generally hot and sunny. There is a fair chance of the UK's highest temperature of 2023 being recorded in early September, beating the high of 32.2C that was recorded in meteorological summer, with temperatures looking set to head into the low 30s Celsius at times in south-eastern Britain.
