Another Bank Holiday Weekend approaches, 2 out 3 this month, with many likely going abroad to mainland Europe over the long-weekend, I thought I’d have a look at what the weather will be like on the continent.
Snoptically, high pressure will be in charge across SW Europe, keeping much of Iberia dry, while a large high pressure system will keep Scandinavia and much of Eastern Europe dry. Low pressure will extend east from the Atlantic between these two high pressure systems, bringing spells of rain, showers or thunderstorms across the UK, France, Benelux, central Europe and parts of northern Italy.
Summer heat has arrived early in Iberia and also SW France. Just before the Bank Holiday last weekend, Spain, Portugal and Morocco all saw their national highest April temperature records broken on Thursday 27th April. Cordoba in Spain recorded 38.8C (old record 38.6C), Mora in Portugal reached 36.9C (old record 36.3C) and Marrakech in Morocco reached 41.3C.
The heat still lingers over Iberia over the Coronation Bank Holiday Weekend, temperatures reaching the low to mid-thirties inland across southern Portugal, southern, central and eastern Spain, coastal resorts the high twenties. More comfortable for northern Portugal and the Atlantic coasts of north and northwest Spain – with highs in the low to mid-twenties. Rather warm across southern France, temperatures reaching the mid-to-high twenties Celsius. High pressure should keep most of Portugal and the southern half of Spain dry throughout the weekend, northern Spain and southern France may see some showery rain move east off the Atlantic from Friday night and through Saturday, drier Sunday and Monday. Southern France mostly dry towards the Mediterranean, a risk of heavy showers or thunderstorms inland.
Further east across the Mediterranean and temperatures are looking more comfortable for Italy, the Balkans and Greece compared to Iberia. Temperatures generally in the low to mid-twenties Celsius. A risk of afternoon thunderstorms developing over the hillier / mountainous parts of northern and central Italy most days, the same for interior parts of the Balkan countries. Otherwise dry and sunny.
For northern France, Benelux, Germany, Switzerland, Austria, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary and Poland – generally temperatures reaching the high teens or low twenties, locally mid-twenties. Sunny spells are likely across these countries – but also a risk of spells of rain, heavy showers or thunderstorms most days. Poland, the Czech Republic and Slovakia look to stay dry until Monday, though.
A chilly start to the long weekend across Scandinavia though. Highs on Friday and Saturday widely in single figures across Norway, northern Sweden and much of Finland, southern Sweden into the low teens. Warming up a little Sunday and Monday across Sweden, southern Finland and Norway away from higher ground, with temperatures reaching the low to mid-teens, perhaps high teens across eastern Sweden on Monday. With high pressure sitting over Scandinavia much of the weekend, it looks to stay mostly dry and sunny, cold at night, though, especially Friday and Saturday night, with a widespread frost looking likely.
So for those that like the sun, heat and little rain, much of Spain and Portugal shouldn’t disappoint. Southern France, central and eastern Mediterranean warm or very warm but not overly hot. There will be a risk of heavy showers or thunderstorms inland, especially over mountainous areas. Benelux, central and eastern Europe pleasantly warm in any sunshine, but some showers or thunderstorms around, though eastern Europe mostly dry until Monday.
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