This weekend there will be rain from the west, blustery winds and it won’t be as hot as last weekend. The extreme heat has gone and the thunderstorm threat will be over. If you do have a day out planned there will be fine weather but for more exposed western areas, it will be more like early autumn than the height of summer. Beaches in the south and east of England should still be fine for holidaymakers and the sea is warmer now, if you are off for a paddle.
There will still be strong sunshine, especially for southern and eastern areas, lifting temperatures into the low 20s Celsius. A few places could reach 24 to 26C this weekend but it’s not going to feel like it did in that extreme heat. However, there is still little rain in the forecast for southeastern Britain, even eastern counties.
If you are off to see Coldplay at Wembley Stadium on Friday evening, it is looking lovely. Fine and warm, with sunny spells. It will be dry with temperatures around 22C.
To start the weekend there will be a main low pressure centred over Iceland and a smaller low that will run to the south of it. Gales are forecast with strong gusts for west coast Scotland and the north coast of Ireland. This will throw frontal rain into Ireland and NW Britain during Friday night and Saturday morning. Showers then feed in from the Atlantic over more of Northern Ireland and Britain. But some parts stay dry and bright, even sunny and warm.
A mixed forecast for the Edinburgh festival. It should be dry for Friday evening but then a more unsettled picture for the weekend days. The risk of showery rain moving through with bright or sunny spells in between. Saturday looks blustery and temperatures will be 15 to 18C
York Ebor horse racing festival this week. There will be a bit of rain during Friday night but then dry by day and warm in the pleasant sunshine. Saturday looks blustery, not ideal for any hats but should remain dry and bright. Temperatures just into the low 20sC.
Then a lull later in the day and overnight before another low pressure begins to head in from the west. Ahead of this, there will be fine weather, again with sunshine. The models vary about the next batch of rain. The ECM shows cloud increasing over Ireland and rain setting in. It looks to reach over the Irish Sea to Wales on Sunday afternoon and spread over more of western Britain and Northern Ireland by the evening.
There is some uncertainty about the positioning of the smaller lows and which strip of the UK will see the heavier rain as they move eastwards. The Netwx-MR model holds the Sunday rain back until the early hours of Monday and so Sunday remains a fair day, with more warm sunshine. It also won’t be as blustery as on Saturday.