Mixed UK weather for the May Bank Holiday weekend but not a washout

For the Bank Holiday weekend, there is the potential for temperatures to reach 19 to 20C with a change of airmass on the way. Currently, this cold air is confusing. We are at the end of April, the sun when it appears is lovely and warm but there is a chilly stealth to the cold air. Keeping us on our toes. Those who’ve had cloudy, grey days this week will know that has felt cold under the gloomy skies. Edinburgh yesterday reached 13.2C, the top temperature in the East Midlands was only 10.5C and 10.7C for NE England. The air had a real edge to it in NE Britain, quite at odds with the look of the day if you did have blue skies and sunshine. The top temperatures on Thursday were around 15 or 16C for western parts and that would have felt pleasant in the strong UV rays.

We’ve had high pressure over the UK for the middle of the week and that gets interrupted by a low pressure from the northwest on Saturday. Today we continue with a similar pattern to the past few days, but you might have more cloud today or more sunshine and that will affect how the day feels. It’s still steady and dry for most, with light winds and the risk of frost by night continues.  

The thicker cloud over northern Scotland down to Fife is giving some showery rain this morning and that continues today, extending a little into central Scotland. Areas that had clear skies overnight have fallen away to just below freezing inland with frost once more.

As this weekend low dives in from the northwest it will bring more rain but also a change to warmer air. This will allow the threat of frost to ease down and daytime temperature range to nudge up. Mid to high teens, even 20C for a few spots in the sunshine. It will feel warmer, not have that nippy edge to the air but it’s not a Bank Holiday heatwave.

For Saturday, much of the UK will continue with fine settled weather and good sunshine. East Anglia could have some lingering North Sea cloud well inland for the morning. However, for Northern Ireland and NW Scotland, it is a completely different story.

Rain sets in for much of Saturday for the northwest of the UK with heavy rain at times for Argyll, Skye and Mull, also Co. Derry. This rain will be welcomed by farmers and growers, also the Fire & Rescue teams.  It will also be windy with a brisk southerly wind and gusts over 50mph for the hills. The rain will reach eastern Scotland in the afternoon, then the far north of England and Anglesey by early evening. Staying fine with increasing cloud ahead of this rainband. 

The whole lot pushes southwards overnight, turning wet for SW Scotland, Manchester and Wales. By Sunday morning the low is filling and the rain band weakening but still, it will give a different start for England and Wales after the dry, settled spell. Damp and grey although Hants and West Sussex might have seen some clear spells and temperatures dipping away. There will be more rain through the day as the fading low centre edges southwards. Wales and western England look most likely to see proper rain for a time on Sunday. Elsewhere there will be drier brighter weather appearing from the far north but for most, it will be a mixed day with a good deal of cloud and patchy, showery rain. Some areas could miss the rain and even see breaks in the cloud allowing warm sunshine.

After the long dry spell across Britain, there are warnings about the risk of fire as more people head to the countryside this Bank Holiday weekend. 

By Sunday evening the patchy rain will mostly be over SW Britain leaving a mild night across the UK but with light winds. Monday will be one of those British seaside days where there are bright spells and the promise of sunshine but (as it is a Bank Holiday) the weather isn’t quite reliable. There will be a scattering of showers across the UK but only light winds. Most of the UK will be in the milder air so temperatures in the brighter spells will be 15 to 19C but colder air tucking into the far northeast of Scotland once more.