A long weekend coming up for the May Day bank holiday. The weather isn't quite as settled but still plenty of fair, often dry conditions and a bit warmer in the sunshine.
It seems like the Easter holidays have only just finished and now we have a long weekend. Only one Bank Holiday in May this year as the usual late May one has been bumped onto the June Jubilee weekend. The UK weather looks okay but not as settled but still warm in any sunshine.
This week has seen high pressure move over the UK with a cooler airflow from the northeast. It’s chilly by night with frost in places but overall settled and dry. There are a few changes taking shape for the holiday weekend, mostly from the northwest but some parts of the UK will continue with the fair picture but never getting hot. Temperatures look to stay in the mid to high teens, perhaps just managing 20 or 21C at the very start of May.
Through Saturday a small low pressure rolls in from the northwest, disrupting the steady, settled weather within the high pressure. However the high is well established and holds on. The low loses its identity and the rain that arrives during Saturday will weaken and fade over western Britain and Northern Ireland on Sunday morning.
This small Saturday low looks to pull some milder air over Ireland and northern Britain, so a change from the cold flow from the north at least. This week has felt pleasant in any sunshine but cold once the sun sets, or in a breeze off the North Sea or even under the thick cloud. This is what has kept the day temperatures in the range of 11 to 17C. Cardiff managed 17.5C on Tuesday.
With milder air, the temperatures will nudge up, to the high teens and could tip just into the low twenties, but still needing the sunshine. The incoming low pressure will bring more frontal cloud with it and there is still seafret drifting in off the North Sea.
That cold air remains over SE Britain for Saturday night, slowly shifting to milder air by Monday. The colder air returns to the far north of Scotland by the end of Bank Holiday Monday, so chilly here in the north wind and still an edge to the air for North Sea coasts down into NE England, to Lincolnshire and north Norfolk. However, for many parts, it won’t feel as cold without the sunshine and not as nippy by night.
Sunday will see more central and eastern areas in the high teens Celsius. By Monday, warm for southern Britain and Manchester, and Glasgow.
Worth bearing in mind if you are camping this weekend that Friday night looks chilly and still nippy for SE Britain on Saturday night. And do follow local advice about campfires and BBQs as it has been dry for a good while.
Air temperatures are edging up slowly at this time of year, although the northerly airflow isn’t helping. The sun’s rays are strong so do think about sunscreen if you are out for a while or the middle of the day. There is a lag for the sea surface temperatures SSTs, still cold well into spring, but holding the warmth into autumn. Just look at the North Sea on the chart, those purples showing SSTs around 8C.
The north coast of France has less cold waters now but there is still a cool NE breeze persisting for the Channel Islands this weekend even with bright weather and sunny spells.
The models will need to firm up with their timings of the approaching rain on Saturday from the north-west and then how much remains for Sunday for western areas (as shown on the GFS model image above), The ECM model keeps more cloud and patchy rain right over southern Britain through Sunday, so that would hamper the temperatures too. There could just be more cloud and dampness around the coasts but sometimes that is enough of a nuisance to affect a day out.
Bank holiday Monday looks settled away from the far north of Scotland where rain could edge in with the colder air but for most, it looks like an okay day with hopefully warm sunshine lifting the temperatures.
