A look ahead to Easter weekend, starting fine and warm but a shift from the west for the Bank Holiday Monday weather.
Easter holidays are already underway for many, and the long Bank Holiday weekend is coming up. The UK weather is looking a bit mixed although there will be warm sunny spells continuing the feeling that spring is here. Warm air continues to flow up from the south over the next few days, into the start of the weekend but it looks like things could change in time for Bank Holiday Monday.
Temperatures remain in the mid to high teens, just into the low 20sC. The sunshine is strong now and tree pollen levels are moderate to high as the warmth continues.
A shift from settled fine weather to rain from the west to end the Easter weekend break
The problem with the overall detail is that there isn’t a decent high pressure steadying the pattern over western Europe. The Jetstream is meandering about and although this week there is the warm flow up from the south the high pressure can’t quite hold on over the UK. It brings a fair amount of dry, settled weather for Maundy Thursday but Atlantic frontal bands begin to bump in from the west. High pressure edges towards Scandinavia with low centres near to Iceland/Greenland. These lows throw more cloud and bands of rain towards NW Scotland and Northern Ireland later this week. Other frontal bands slide up from the southwest and also bring rain at times.
The models are keen to bring a low pressure with its cloud and rain in from the west later Sunday into Monday. Depending on its progress eastwards the airflow could shift from a warm southerly to a cooler westerly Also with more cloud and bands of rain, there would be less warm spring sunshine.
Much of England has plenty of fair, often dry weather. Further northwest there will be more chance of rain over the Easter weekend. Wales looks to have a dry first half but more chance of rain in the second half.
Good Friday
As the warm southerly flow continues there will be a lot of fair, dry weather over Britain but early patchy frontal rain for Northern Ireland which fades and dampness over NW mainland Scotland. In the warm sunnier areas, a few showers could break out, northern England or Wales looking most likely but overall, a fine day. Central, eastern and SE England should see temperatures around 20C.
Warm in sunshine and a southerly flow
Saturday
Again, a lot of fair weather with hardly any breeze. Western Britain and Northern Ireland could see more cloud and damp weather at times. Temperatures still mid to high teens. Greater London passing 20C.
Easter Sunday
Bands of showery rain move from Ireland over northern Britain by night and then there is lower confidence about the progress of any Atlantic rain. England could stay dry and sunny for part of Easter Sunday and be warm, again high teens or low 20sC. However, the frontal rain could make more progress across the UK, not just into Northern Ireland and western parts of Britain.
Easter Monday
The ECM model is keen to sweep a low pressure over Scotland and then a colder breeze around the low with bands of rain and then blustery showers to follow. Quite a change. The GFS model is slower with the low centre and so not quite such a dramatic change for Bank Holiday Monday.
