Fiji prepares for Category 5 Yasa, a powerful Pacific cyclone due on Thursday 17th December.
Yasa is a powerful Pacific cyclone which has been heading for Fiji and is forecast to move over or near to the islands on Thursday 17th December. The categories are slightly different in the southern Pacific to the Atlantic ones but Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasa is a category 5 storm in Fiji and on the equivalent hurricane scale.
The warnings are dire, although there is still some uncertainty in the path, partly due to another cyclone nearby, the lesser Zazu which moved over Tonga this week.
There is a hurricane warning for some of the Fijian islands, also warnings for Storm surge, damaging heavy swell and flash flooding.
“Destructive winds are likely to begin several hours before the cyclone centre passes overhead or nearby “ Fiji Met
Winds
“Very destructive hurricane-force winds of up to 150mph with momentary gusts of up to 215mph” This will be extremely dangerous and lead to widespread destruction. Damage to property and infrastructure, severe disruption to power supplies and communication services. These winds would uproot large trees and cause total damage to crops and vegetation.
Rain and Sea
There will be torrential rain and squally thunderstorms. With the flash flooding, there is the risk of landslides. The sea state will be Phenomenal with damaging swells and in the storm surge of up to 3m, sea flooding is expected with large waves.
Preparations
The people of Fiji have been planning and preparing. The cyclone season runs from November to May. Cyclones are part of island life but this Category 5 cyclone is something else.
The advice has been to stay informed and secure homes. To stow objects that could be blown away by the wind, or washed away by floods or the storm surge. To find torches and candles, charge mobile phones and store food and water. To keep all valuables, medication and documents in a waterproof container. To look up the locations of evacuation centres. There has been very little COVID on the islands, so that is one less issue.
Farmers have secured their property and livestock, machinery and tools being moved to higher ground. Harvesting crops has been advised if they could be moved to safety before the storm.
Schools were closed on Wednesday and examinations cancelled. The older students were in the middle of exams this week, these have been postponed. Parents are being urged to “strictly monitor their children’s movements”
For Fisherfolk there is a No Sail order and advice to secure their boats, engines and fishing gear.
By Friday, the whole of Fiji will have experienced damaging winds and widespread heavy rain with the risk of severe flooding, storm surge and rivers bursting their banks. The system will be tracking southwards and should be away from Fiji by the weekend. It is forecast to pass well west of Tonga but could still bring gales, large waves and heavy rain as it passes.
Northern Tonga has already experienced gales, large waves and heavy rain from Cyclone Zazu this week, which was a category 1 cyclone locally but more like a Tropical Storm compared to Atlantic strengths.
Category Cyclone 1 Fiji/BoM has mean winds 34-47 knots with a central pressure greater than 985 hPa
Category Cyclone 5 has mean winds greater than 107 knots with a central pressure less than 910 hPa. (137+knots for Saffir Simpson Scale)
Cyclone Seasons
For the whole Nadi Regional cyclone warning area in the southwest Pacific, one to three severe TCs are forecast for 2020/21, (cat. 3 or above on the local scale). On average, around three severe tropical cyclones affect the Tropical Cyclone Centre (TCC) Nadi region per season, but this time the western part could see an above average number of cyclones, the east, fewer.
In February 2016 Fiji was hit by it's most powerful cyclone, Winston, another Cat.5 which was also one of the worst cyclones in the southern hemisphere. Its track wandered about widely before approaching the islands from the east. 65% of the population of Fiji was affected. Looking at the future with further cyclones and climate change, there were moves to build resilience into Government, society and the communities response and the recovery. Stronger coordination has hopefully enabled more effective disaster management. On average the Fijian Islands would experience two tropical cyclones in a season, influenced by El Nino or this time currently a weak La Nina. As Fiji awaits mighty Yasa, it has certainly been quite a start to the this cyclone season.
More chat in the Netweather forum on the Cyclone Yasa thread
