There has been some hot weather during June over the last few years. We have to go back to 2016 for the last one that 30C wasn't reached, but at the moment forecasting models suggest it may be a struggle this year.
The last few Junes have seen 30C reached and exceeded in Britain. June 2019 saw 34C at Heathrow on the 29th. June 2018 saw numerous locations exceed 30C from the 25th. June 2017 saw five consecutive days from mid-month where 30C was reached somewhere in England, with 34.5C at Heathrow on 21st. We have to go back to June 2016 when 30C wasn’t reached when the month’s highest temperature was 27.8C at Porthmadog in NW Wales.
Previous to that last decade, here were the highest temperatures recorded each June, there were another 3 Junes (2015, 2011 & 2010) where the highest temperature exceeded 30C:
Recent and current ensemble temperature graphs suggesting daily maximum temperatures failing to get near 30C for London up until the 28th, usually the most likely location to see 30C.
06z GEFS 2m temperatures for London until late month:
00z ECMWF ensemble and GEFS 2m temperature for London:
Even in Paris, which usually sees maximum temperatures at least a couple of degrees higher, given it more inland location, the daily maximum amongst the ensembles doesn’t reach 30C.
As you can see from the dates above for the last decade, when 30C was reached in some the Junes, 30C tends to be reached later in the month, usually after the 25th, though in 2017 from mid-month. So we still can’t be sure that 30C won’t be reached later this month, given over 7-10 days, weather patterns can change quite a bit from what current model guidance is suggesting.
Looking at the overall projected mean temperatures for the rest of June, looking at ECMWF longer-range weeklies, that update twice a week, it looks like most of June’s anomalous warmth or heat will be over Scandinavia, parts of northern Europe and western Russia, the UK/NW Europe on the very edge of the warmth over the next week or so.
15th - 21st June - ECWMF weeklies 2m temperature anomalies
22nd - 28th June - ECWMF weeklies 2m temperature anomalies
29th June - 5th July - ECWMF weeklies 2m temperature anomalies
Recently we saw the temperature reach 30C within the arctic circle of the far north of Russia. While Iberia, much the Mediterranean regions of southern Europe, start off below average, but only recovering to average, though these areas on average see heat this time of year anyway, but not any extremes of heat on the cards. This appears to be thanks to lower than average pressure/heights over southern and western Europe and higher than average pressure and heights over northern and northeastern Europe.
ECMWF ensemble 10 day 500mb height anomaly
So, it looks like no heatwave on the cards in the UK over the few weeks, though given the reliability of models drops beyond 7 days quite markedly, one can't be ruled out towards the end of the month that could muster 30C or more.
