Storms and Convective discussion - 10th April 2020 onwards

[James1979]

Same day, nice and close bolt.  

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

2 hours ago, James1979 said:

Got a little reminiscent tonight of one of my best captures (from film here) of lightning over the years - this was back in Essex a good few years ago now, a little shower popped up from nowhere and suddenly got all electrical on me.  A rainbow across the sky and then lighting to boot all in one was the gift. 

Lovely shot - and what a moment, shame we have to wait about 3 years between each decent event these days

Got me thinking back to one of my favourite lightning captures from a small and fairly insignificant afternoon storm down near Portsmouth:

b

[Thunder and Lightning]

This was my Day 2 Yesterday (1st image)

The 2nd image is my Day 1 today. I will probably end up shrinking the slight a little.

[AMeltedFlake]

I suppose a 15% from Estofex is better than nothing

[ChannelThunder]

Hope somebody in Wales/the Midlands has some fun today!

It's a shame this damn northerly is going to prevent would could have been a good plume opportunity coming up from the south. I can't stand northerlies in the winter, but this is the first time in a while I've really had to dislike one in BST!

Edited May 9, 2020 by lancem

[Lu.]

4 hours ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Lovely shot - and what a moment, shame we have to wait about 3 years between each decent event these days

Got me thinking back to one of my favourite lightning captures from a small and fairly insignificant afternoon storm down near Portsmouth:

b

Oh my, almost ended up as Roast lamb that fella

This is still my all time favourite shot of mine, the storm had moved on, about to pack up when this spark got caught 

[Allseasons-Si]

CW's updated there forecast,not the update i was hoping for mind but a slightly better day convection wise,lets see how it pans out.

Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 09 May 2020 - 05:59 UTC Sun 10 May 2020

ISSUED 06:53 UTC Sat 09 May 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

Upper ridge continues to sit over the British Isles on Saturday, although being gradually eroded by both a sharpening upper trough approaching from the Norwegian Sea and by a cut-off upper low diving into Iberia from the Atlantic. The net result is a gradual falling of heights aloft through the day. A rather complex upper flow is also present on Saturday, with a southeasterly at 700mb potentially advecting some weak elevated instability / convection across the Channel Islands first thing on Saturday morning, this 700mb flow then veers round to the southwest upon reaching the Bristol Channel / M4 corridor - all the while the flow at 500mb is largely uniformly southwesterly. 

... MAINLAND BRITISH ISLES DAYTIME / EVENING ...

Once again, diurnal heating will yield 300-700 J/kg CAPE by the afternoon and evening hours across parts of England, Wales and Ireland, potentially higher over S / SW Ireland. Given the upper ridge in place and the lack of any pronounced shortwaves, as with previous days convection initiation and sustainment will be heavily reliant on a combination of low-level wind convergence and orographic forcing - and hence any isolated showers that do develop are most likely near high ground.

Lightning activity will be somewhat dependent on the depth of convection - and while slight cooling may have occurred at the 500mb level early in the day, it seems likely that this layer may warm slightly once again during Saturday afternoon, acting as a warm nose and restricting the tops of shower clouds to below this level. Nonetheless, forecast profiles look slightly more encouraging for some deeper convection on Saturday than compared with the past two days, more especially across S / SW Ireland where mid-level lapse rates will be steeper. As a result, some sporadic lightning is possible here - and a low-end SLGT has been issued - with a few isolated lightning strikes possible elsewhere (particularly Wales / W Midlands). Showers will gradually fade from mid-evening onwards as diurnal heating subsides. Some hail will be possible from the strongest cells, more especially in Ireland.

 

... CHANNEL REGION SATURDAY NIGHT ...

Depending on the exact shape of the upper pattern, the mid-level steering flow could allow some elevated convection to drift northwards from France across the Channel Islands and general English Channel region during Saturday night. However, it is not clear how much (if any) lightning activity will be present with such showery outbreaks of rain, given relatively weak instability and existing uncertainty surrounding how far north this may spread in either case.

 

... NORTHERN ISLES SATURDAY NIGHT ...

Behind a cold front, an incursion of Arctic air will spread rapidly southwards atop relatively warm SSTs. This will generate a 100-200 J/kg CAPE, and numerous wintry showers are then likely to affect the area, particularly during the early hours of Sunday. However, the depth of convection will be fairly shallow, and this suggests that any lightning will likely be isolated at best.

Convective Weather

WWW.CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK

---

Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days.

[Allseasons-Si]

The bbc graphics look a bit pants but the METO looks better from 13:00hrs for Wales,west midlands,Yorkshire and Lincolnshire,sorry SE but you get to enjoy the sunshine,watch out in the channel in the early hours though.

UK weather forecast map - Met Office

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

---

Met Office 5 day weather forecast map for UK including weather warnings, temperature, rain, wind speed, cloud, and pressure.

camera's on charge ready for some action we hope

have a good day everyone.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

2 hours ago, Thunder and Lightning said:

This was my Day 2 Yesterday (1st image)

The 2nd image is my Day 1 today. I will probably end up shrinking the slight a little.

That avocado’s got another baby on the way lol

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

26 minutes ago, Lu. said:

Oh my, almost ended up as Roast lamb that fella

This is still my all time favourite shot of mine, the storm had moved on, about to pack up when this spark got caught 

Such a pleasing slither of lightning

[James1979]

5 hours ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Lovely shot - and what a moment, shame we have to wait about 3 years between each decent event these days

Got me thinking back to one of my favourite lightning captures from a small and fairly insignificant afternoon storm down near Portsmouth:

b

Thanks Flash! Yes it is a bit of a waiting game isnt it these days! Nice capture too!

[Paul]

While we're waiting for things to kick of today, Nick has just published a guide to the different thunderstorm types that we see, which is well worth a read:

What are the different types of thunderstorm? - Blog by Nick Finnis

WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

---

There are many different types of thunderstorm - from single-cell storms right up to supercells. Find out what the differences are, how to identify them.

And for those who maybe didn't read his previous guide to forecasting thunderstorms, it's here:

How to forecast thunderstorms: The basics - Blog by Nick Finnis

WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

---

Learn the basics of thunderstorm forecasting in this guide written by Netweather forecaster Nick Finnis.

And, just to add another one into the mix - Nick's been busy this morning and has just issued a storm forecast too

https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/uk/convective

[Rush2019]

This is looking south east from Macclesfield, lots more behind it, but can't get it on shot, too built up.

[Rush2019]

This is within a few minutes, towers going up quite quickly, bit of a shaving foam effect.  They appear to be forming from the south, Congleton direction, but slowly moving south east. Garden thermometer 22°.  Just love the anticipation and cloud watching.

[Allseasons-Si]

First tower going up to my SW.

Edited May 9, 2020 by Allseasons-si

[Eagle Eye]

loooking through some old Photos. 

The 2 middle ones were the same One. 

Edited May 9, 2020 by Xanderp009

[Liam Ellis]

I don't think we'll see anything here in north west Wales today but plenty of clouds bubbling towards south Snowdonia in the very warm sunshine. 

[Ryukai]

Plenty of 'fair weather' cumulus beginning to cover the sky here () 

Also that cell over Birmingham yesterday evening was huge, I could see it all the way from here o_O 

[Allseasons-Si]

First echo of PPN to my SW now.

[Rush2019]

15 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

First echo of PPN to my SW now.

Got the a.m. radio on, low khz station, should pick up any sferics from the ppn north east of stoke if any.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Why are there about 15 storm forecasts for today?

[Zak M]

Did not expect to say this today, but...

There's towering cumulus to my north.

[Zak M]

First sferic of the day, SW Ireland.

[Allseasons-Si]

1 minute ago, Zak M said:

First sferic of the day, SW Ireland.

I just hope that they don't nick all the juice  

[Dangerous55019]

Some juicy looking convective towers and cloudscapes over towards the Chester area at the moment. 
Good luck to everyone today with this.