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With a potential cold end to winter and start to spring on the horizon, here's a thread to discuss the ins and outs of that, how the latest forecasts are looking and so on. 

There's obviously a lot of chat in the model thread about this currently, and you can also find info about the SSW over in the strat thread

Nick has also blogged about the SSW here:
Sudden Stratospheric Warming This Weekend, But What Is It & How Will It Affect Our Weather?

And about the model mayhem currently being caused by it here:
Sudden Stratospheric Warming Brings Weather Model Mayhem

It's fair to say that confidence in the exact weather we're going to see from mid-next week onward is currently very low, but the Met Office are confident enough in the likelihood of cold weather that they've recently put out a press release:
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/2018/a-sudden-stratospheric-warming-and-potential-impacts-on-uk

Quote

There is increasing confidence that the recent Sudden Stratospheric Warming above the North Pole could lead to prolonged cold conditions over the UK, increasing the risk of easterly wind and significant snow.

Winter could be set to go out with a bang it seems, but it's not nailed on, yet.....

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I think Met Office is saying the cold WILL come at some point and if not next week, then by the end of Feb, as in "Winter's not over folks"

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This is the thread I need, it's hard not to ramp when record-breaking cold is being shown.

 

The models do seem to be trending towards a beast from the east, although there's a question mark around the amount of snow for me - if we're reliant solely on easterly convection that's going to pose an issue imby, however maximums below freezing sounds good to me.

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2 minutes ago, Jo Farrow said:

I think Met Office is saying the cold WILL come at some point and if not next week, then by the end of Feb, as in "Winter's not over folks"

Is MOGREPS the Mets ensemble ? Like the GEFS for example?

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Met Office seem pretty confident!

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5 minutes ago, danm said:

Met Office seem pretty confident!

Thanks for sharing - very interesting.

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fingers crossed everybody, this could be the best in a long time :D :cold:, could it beat march 2013, maybe possibly jan and dec 2010 or maybe maybe it would be amazing to be like 1962/63 ;) but thats a bit too extreme in my mind:wink:

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Thanks Paul, that's what I need another thread to watch every 5 minutes:D:D 

 

This potential cold spell has just got a little more interesting!!

Edited by That ECM

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I would love it to be like my username. The depth of cold here was something else. Minus 6 at lunchtime and minus 15 at night. I have a pic somewhere of -13 in my car at 7am!!! A couple of significant snowfalls as well. If this comes anywhere close I'll be very happy

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Just have a feeling the EC will not show the beast on todays 12Z, could be similar to GFS, which is a bit pants, compared to EC 00Z, GFS nowhere near as good, yes beast arrives later, but uncertainty is increased

ECM1-192.GIF?16-12gfs-0-192.png?12

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1 hour ago, Leon1 said:

fingers crossed everybody, this could be the best in a long time :D :cold:, could it beat march 2013, maybe possibly jan and dec 2010 or maybe maybe it would be amazing to be like 1962/63 ;) but thats a bit too extreme in my mind:wink:

It would have to be incredibly special to beat Dec 2009/Jan 2010 (over a foot of level snow that froze over) as a winter event for me. Not going to stop me hoping though!

That said if the charts continue to push -12 to -14 uppers over the country that's going to be possible. 

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EC better than I thought, but not as good as 00Z, ideally need the setup further north, only SE England seeing snow off this, was everywhere on 00Z

ECM1-168.GIF?16-0

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i don't really know anything about this but i kind of understand, but when is the next chart update, is it the gfs, if so, can someone tell me what time it does

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10 minutes ago, Leon1 said:

i don't really know anything about this but i kind of understand, but when is the next chart update, is it the gfs, if so, can someone tell me what time it does

Starts about 9.30

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Does anyone know what the Uppers were in December 2010 Obviously not comparing this Possible cold spell Just Interested to Know

C.S

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1 hour ago, cheshire snow said:

Does anyone know what the Uppers were in December 2010 Obviously not comparing this Possible cold spell Just Interested to Know

C.S

Think the uppers progged on tonight EC are lower- if EC comes off it will be an easterly to be remembered for quite a long time imho.

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The Met Office have been consistent in their forecasts of a cold period to end the month and start Spring for quite a few days now. We can still see ice days end of Feb and early March. Last time we had an ice day in Spring was March 11 2013, and many many days in late March 2013 maxed out at just 3 or 4 degrees, under a more powerful sun. There is potential a run of very cold maxima could be on the cards, back to back ice days possible, especially if the sun doesn't show its face. Lets see.

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10 hours ago, damianslaw said:

The Met Office have been consistent in their forecasts of a cold period to end the month and start Spring for quite a few days now. We can still see ice days end of Feb and early March. Last time we had an ice day in Spring was March 11 2013, and many many days in late March 2013 maxed out at just 3 or 4 degrees, under a more powerful sun. There is potential a run of very cold maxima could be on the cards, back to back ice days possible, especially if the sun doesn't show its face. Lets see.

Indeed, I'm not sure why some people are worrying so much about the time of year. If the air is cold enough, it won't matter; many famous cold spells have taken place in late February/March.

My thermometer recorded a 1C max. after the equinox in March 2013 in my then south-eastern location. And that always used to overestimate temperatures when it got cold, so quite possibly an ice day with over 12 hours of daylight.

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10 hours ago, damianslaw said:

The Met Office have been consistent in their forecasts of a cold period to end the month and start Spring for quite a few days now. We can still see ice days end of Feb and early March. Last time we had an ice day in Spring was March 11 2013, and many many days in late March 2013 maxed out at just 3 or 4 degrees, under a more powerful sun. There is potential a run of very cold maxima could be on the cards, back to back ice days possible, especially if the sun doesn't show its face. Lets see.

Yes spring does not always start on March 1st as they found out in 1947 when severe winter persisted into the 3rd week March.2013 also gave us a reminder what March can bring and ice days can happen late into April as we found out here in 1981 where 25 and 26 were sub ero here

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March as the old saying goes

In like a Lion out like a Lamb

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GFS 6z is a run to rival and perhaps supercede Jan 1987- i'm sure the uppers are at least on a par , and the flow is relentless for a good 5 or 6 days.

I would imagine we would be talking ice days and severe drifting - esp the poor old South east who continue to suffer an unbearable snow drought.

With the ICON 6Z AND NAVGEM6Z now UPGRADING the cold i hope to goodness the trend is maintained on the 12zs and the EC comes back on board.

I suspect when the met office mention significant snow this is exactly the type of run they were seeing..

PLEASE weather gods just for once roll the dice in OUR favour.

 

 

 

Edited by northwestsnow

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I go away next Sunday, so of course this will happen. :wallbash:

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