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Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL

     

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    Posted
  • Location: London (currently)
  • Location: London (currently)

    Yes, the forecasts so far point to an active hurricane season.

     

     

    Edited by karyo
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    Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts

    Hurricanes Grace and Odette will be the ones to look out for this season.....  I'd put them in my team if there was a fantasy hurricane league!

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    Likely to retain a -ONI.

    Likely to develop a -QBO.

    Both factors which point to an active season.

    -PDO tends to subdue activity everywhere.

     

    Punting for sub 20 systems even with an above major hurricane total is probably the best bet.

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    • 2 weeks later...
    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    As the models point past midmonth it may be worth suggesting that we may have the first year since 2014 not to produce an early system.

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    Posted
  • Location: Medway - 125m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, snowy winters and thunderstorms!
  • Location: Medway - 125m ASL

    There's already a depression on the Pacific side of Mexico, so things are getting there.

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    Posted
  • Location: East Lothian
  • Weather Preferences: Not too hot, excitement of snow, a hoolie
  • Location: East Lothian
    19 hours ago, Lauren said:

    There's already a depression on the Pacific side of Mexico, so things are getting there.

    Tropical Storm Andres starting the eastern Pacific hurricane season

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    Posted
  • Location: Wirral
  • Location: Wirral

    Not an Atlantic hurricane but it looks like there's likely to be something stirring in the Arabian Sea over the next few days headed for Gujarat or possibly up to the Indus delta/Karachi area. One to watch.

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    Posted
  • Location: London (currently)
  • Location: London (currently)
    12 hours ago, Pea said:

    Not an Atlantic hurricane but it looks like there's likely to be something stirring in the Arabian Sea over the next few days headed for Gujarat or possibly up to the Indus delta/Karachi area. One to watch.

    Yes, the Indian Meteorological Department is expecting this tropical depression to develop fast into a cyclone.

    https://mausam.imd.gov.in/imd_latest/contents/cyclone.php

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    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
    2 minutes ago, karyo said:

    Yes, the Indian Meteorological Department is expecting this tropical depression to develop fast into a cyclone.

    https://mausam.imd.gov.in/imd_latest/contents/cyclone.phpl

    Looks like the Models are showing that as well, certainly something to keep an eye on. 

    Screenshot_20210514_093700.jpg

    Screenshot_20210514_093932.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: RACY, Extratropical Storm, Barocyclonic Leaf
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District

    The first Disturbance of 2021 on the NHC list, now with a 70% chance of becoming named sometime over the weekend as it moves towards Bermuda.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
  • Weather Preferences: extremes n snow
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
    23 minutes ago, SNOW_JOKE said:

    The first Disturbance of 2021 on the NHC list, now with a 70% chance of becoming named sometime over the weekend as it moves towards Bermuda.

     

    Probably hit the UK on Bank Holiday Monday.😛

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    GRAPHIC-2021-Hurricane-Outlook-piechart-

    Met Office also released a forecast but went in such a broad range that they basically evaded giving a proper forecast beyond being outside the 15% most extreme seasons either side.

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    Posted
  • Location: Medway - 125m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, snowy winters and thunderstorms!
  • Location: Medway - 125m ASL

    2 areas of development in the Atlantic now, one looking likely to become named soon. All kicking off!

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    Posted
  • Location: just behind Epsom Racecourse and the center of York
  • Location: just behind Epsom Racecourse and the center of York

    Talk that hurricance force winds have hit the greek island of Petra earlier today!!

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    Posted
  • Location: East Lothian
  • Weather Preferences: Not too hot, excitement of snow, a hoolie
  • Location: East Lothian

    The new supplementary name list to replace the Greek Alphabet- if needed.

    hurricane-florence.jpeg
    WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

    Atlantic hurricanes; the strongest, deadliest, costliest and earliest or latest? We'll take a look at some of the extreme hurricanes in history and some that have come close to the UK.

     

    hurriacnemnames.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Wirral
  • Location: Wirral

    After Tauktae hit Gujarat last week a new cyclone (Yaas) increasingly likely to form in the Bay of Bengal this time, possibly headed for Odisha/West Bengal/Kolkata area by Wednesday. Interesting flurry of pre-monsoon storms in that part of the world - perhaps there'll be 2 landfalls in India within 10 days.

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    Posted
  • Location: London (currently)
  • Location: London (currently)
    Posted (edited)
    On 22/05/2021 at 11:30, Pea said:

    After Tauktae hit Gujarat last week a new cyclone (Yaas) increasingly likely to form in the Bay of Bengal this time, possibly headed for Odisha/West Bengal/Kolkata area by Wednesday. Interesting flurry of pre-monsoon storms in that part of the world - perhaps there'll be 2 landfalls in India within 10 days.

    Cyclone Yaas is expected to hit parts of northeast India midweek.

     

     

    Edited by karyo
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    • 2 weeks later...
    Posted
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
  • Weather Preferences: extremes n snow
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
    On 20/05/2021 at 16:30, SNOW_JOKE said:

    The first Disturbance of 2021 on the NHC list, now with a 70% chance of becoming named sometime over the weekend as it moves towards Bermuda.

     

    Became Ana

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    Yes so we obviously never made it through May without development but there's nothing for the next few days forecast despite a favourable convection passage. 2018 and 2019 actually managed to get to July before their second system.

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    Posted
  • Location: London (currently)
  • Location: London (currently)

    The 0z ECM has a low forming in the Bay of Campeche at 144 hours and then moving north to the Texas/Louisiana border by 192 hours.

    The 0Z GFS is much more excited as it strengthens the system to a hurricane moving slowly along the Texas coastline.

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    Posted
  • Location: London (currently)
  • Location: London (currently)

    The NHC is giving a 40% chance of tropical development in the Bay of Campeche/GOM in the next 5 days.

    The models pick this up from about 140 hours onwards but don't look interestied in developing it to anything more than a tropical storm.

    The SSTs are around 27-29c which is above normal for June.

    https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/regsatprod/gom/sst_map.php 

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    Posted
  • Location: London (currently)
  • Location: London (currently)

    Activity has picked up in the tropics with three areas of interest!

    The Bay of Campeche system has now 60% chance of development for the next five days as it slowly moves north. However, the models don't look very interested at present.

    A tropical wave has emerged from Africa and it is currently south of Cabo Verde. It looks healthy and has a 20% chance of development in the next couple of days before entering an unfavourable environment in central tropical Atlantic.

    And out of the blue we may get a tropical depression by tonight. There is a developing low east of North Carolina but it is expected to move over colder waters by Wednesday.

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    Posted
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
  • Weather Preferences: extremes n snow
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...

    E31zvcyVUAYPbFA.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Medway - 125m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, snowy winters and thunderstorms!
  • Location: Medway - 125m ASL

    And we have 'Two'. And 2 other areas of development. Here we go, guys!

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