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Early run up to Winter 2020/2021 discussion


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I've a suspicion that this winter will follow its usual course over the last 5-6 years. Nothing scientific but after 50 years of weather watching and the current autumn, warming ete things just don't seem in a good place. All speculation but the central la Nina, sunspot activity on the up, zonal wind increase going forward and the 10pha temps in the strat falling like a stone its not looking great. That said its weather and we could end up with a classic 78 or early 80s.i also could be talking out of my ars!! ūüė≥

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Just a post for any newbies who have just joined. Musings and posts you WILL regularly come across in the months ahead and going into a winter: 1. October: 'This winter will be front loaded or ba

Says it up top 02/10.   Hot off the press Met office seasonal update OCT 20 for NDJ Considerable changes in favour of a colder Front loaded winter. Gone is the negative low pressur

Last time Liverpool lost 7-2 was apparently in 1962/3. Lets hope the weather remembers

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1 hour ago, swfc said:

I've a suspicion that this winter will follow its usual course over the last 5-6 years. Nothing scientific but after 50 years of weather watching and the current autumn, warming ete things just don't seem in a good place. All speculation but the central la Nina, sunspot activity on the up, zonal wind increase going forward and the 10pha temps in the strat falling like a stone its not looking great. That said its weather and we could end up with a classic 78 or early 80s.i also could be talking out of my ars!! ūüė≥

Not such a central based Nina as it was

image.thumb.png.1f60dc2a92d6b4f6a47cf98adcfbf2ab.png

The coldest anomalies have shifted eastwards recently and are now focused around 120W which is now turning into more of an EP La Nina. A CP La Nina has the coldest anomalies close to 160W

 

Edited by SqueakheartLW
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2 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Not such a central based Nina as it was

image.thumb.png.d6c234e08c5e2141c5b88f7322d402c8.png

The coldest anomalies have shifted eastwards recently and are now focused around 120W which is now turning into more of an EP La Nina. A CP La Nina has the coldest anomalies close to 160W

Think you find its a non event for the UK 

Edited by swfc
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1 hour ago, swfc said:

I guess it's the broken clock scenario, so one day ūü§£

Quite right. About 5% of me wonders if it could actually come true. December and February have switched around numerous times but January has always shown screaming easterlies at varying times.

Ho hum - we all know it'll probably be 15C with floods in the northwest and heatwave warnings in the southeast lol.

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4 hours ago, Froze were the Days said:

Sounds like you're backing out of your forecast for a cold spell in December? usually you stick to your guns (one's which fire blanks).¬†ūüôā

Ahh well¬†ūü§Ē

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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2 hours ago, swfc said:

I've a suspicion that this winter will follow its usual course over the last 5-6 years. Nothing scientific but after 50 years of weather watching and the current autumn, warming ete things just don't seem in a good place. All speculation but the central la Nina, sunspot activity on the up, zonal wind increase going forward and the 10pha temps in the strat falling like a stone its not looking great. That said its weather and we could end up with a classic 78 or early 80s.i also could be talking out of my ars!! ūüė≥

Sounds spot on! ūüėĄ

 

BFTP

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2 hours ago, swfc said:

I've a suspicion that this winter will follow its usual course over the last 5-6 years. Nothing scientific but after 50 years of weather watching and the current autumn, warming ete things just don't seem in a good place. All speculation but the central la Nina, sunspot activity on the up, zonal wind increase going forward and the 10pha temps in the strat falling like a stone its not looking great. That said its weather and we could end up with a classic 78 or early 80s.i also could be talking out of my ars!! ūüė≥

Have to agree...not sure the way GW is getting a wriggle on we'll have much room for winters like in the late 70's/80's - but still think we can experience 2012/13 type winters (fairly cold). Yes the omens (again) don't look great for this winter at this stage, I'm sure we'll get a surprise just when the chips are down (might be a few years away or maybe a month or so). As so many say the chaos theory can never be taken out of the equation with climate. 

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Matt Hugo has written his winter predictions,i would go along with that

also posted this in the tweets thread.

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1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

Matt Hugo has written his winter predictions,i will go along with that

also posted this in the tweets thread.

Not zonal then ūüėĀūüėĀūüėĀ

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Look at these nice CFS monthly charts cold fans

December 2020

EUROPE_PRMSL_DEVIATION_DEC.thumb.jpg.aed5fbc2507e2d00822507f0e2c2a8de.jpg

A nice northerly element there on average, better than recent years at least but the fun gets more as we enter the new year

January 2021

EUROPE_PRMSL_DEVIATION_JAN.thumb.jpg.af230644a86c78cf197607eadca92cea.jpg

Look at all that northern blocking for January 2021 and with the UK placed perfectly on the NE side of the trough that could be set up perfectly for several battle ground royal situations.

February 2021

EUROPE_PRMSL_DEVIATION_FEB.thumb.jpg.7153df6ec5600775ec36a2931a427b3f.jpg

February 2021 just looks more solidly cold a month with the blocking to the north and the low pressure all to our S and SE bringing E and NE winds on average for the month

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I have yet again reached my next due date to release my latest analysis of monthly CFS charts from weather outlook and after some of the monthly charts I have seen recently I simply couldn't wait until today (17th) to deliver this next update but had to hold back to stick to my plan and word to release my next 14 days analysis on 17/11/2020 as I promised I would do

Here is the latest 14 days worth of analysis

CFS 00Z 500hpa anomalies    Start 04/11/2020    End 17/11/2020        Last 17/11/2020

Temps         Dec    Jan    Feb    Mar        TOTAL          Precip          Dec       Jan          Feb         Mar     TOTAL

V Mild            0        0        0         0              0                V Dry             0            1             0              0            1

Mild               0        0        0         0              0                Dry                3            4             1              4            12

Average        8        13      5          4             30              Average        8            5             3              6            22

Cold              6        1         8         10           25              Wet               2            4              7             4            17

V Cold           0        0         1         0              1               V Wet            1           0              3             0              4

Leader     AV/CD  AV       CD      CD        AV/CD         Leader        AV     AV/WET      WET        AV            AV

TOT    14 days worth of data

Key Temp figures    Key Precip Figures
V Mild       +2.00       V Dry        0%
Mild          +1.00       Dry            50%
Average    +0.00      Average    100%
Cold           -1.00       Wet           150%
V Cold       -2.00       V Wet        200%

Now to compare the averages calculated from both sets of data we have the following. The most recent analysis is in bold

06/07/2020 to 31/10/2020 Analysis November CET            -0.33C COLDER        November Precip        90.32% OF NOV AV
The above November figures are my final analysis from all previous updates and the final forecast issued on 31/10/2020
Current November 2020 CET up to the 15th is 9.70C which is currently 2.60C above the 81-10 average. Not going very well so far for the CFS prediction for November 2020 and unless we get a very cold end to the month then this is going to be a big flop November 2020 forecast based on the CFS

04/11/2020 to 17/11/2020 Analysis December CET        -0.43C COLDER        December Precip        103.57% OF DEC AV
21/10/2020 to 03/11/2020 Analysis December CET           -0.36C COLDER         December Precip          60.71% OF DEC AV
07/10/2020 to 20/10/2020 Analysis December CET           -0.21C COLDER         December Precip          75.00% OF DEC AV
23/09/2020 to 06/10/2020 Analysis December CET           -0.29C COLDER         December Precip          75.00% OF DEC AV
06/07/2020 to 22/09/2020 Analysis December CET           -0.25C COLDER         December Precip          87.97% OF DEC AV

04/11/2020 to 17/11/2020 Analysis January CET            -0.07C COLDER        January Precip             92.86% OF JAN AV
21/10/2020 to 03/11/2020 Analysis January CET                -0.36C COLDER        January Precip               92.86% OF JAN AV
07/10/2020 to 20/10/2020 Analysis January CET                -0.14C COLDER        January Precip               114.29% OF JAN AV
23/09/2020 to 06/10/2020 Analysis January CET                -0.36C COLDER        January Precip               103.57% OF JAN AV
06/07/2020 to 22/09/2020 Analysis January CET                -0.25C COLDER        January Precip               108.23% OF JAN AV

04/11/2020 to 17/11/2020 Analysis February CET         -0.71C COLDER        February Precip          142.86% OF FEB AV
21/10/2020 to 03/11/2020 Analysis February CET             -0.36C COLDER        February Precip             121.43% OF FEB AV
07/10/2020 to 20/10/2020 Analysis February CET             -0.50C COLDER        February Precip             125.00% OF FEB AV
23/09/2020 to 06/10/2020 Analysis February CET             -0.43C COLDER        February Precip             125.00% OF FEB AV
06/07/2020 to 22/09/2020 Analysis February CET             -0.24C COLDER        February Precip             115.82% OF FEB AV

04/11/2020 to 17/11/2020 Analysis March CET              -0.71C COLDER        March Precip               100.00% OF MAR AV
21/10/2020 to 03/11/2020 Analysis March CET                 -0.50C COLDER         March Precip                 100.00% OF MAR AV
07/10/2020 to 20/10/2020 Analysis March CET                 -0.57C COLDER         March Precip                 125.00% OF MAR AV
23/09/2020 to 06/10/2020 Analysis March CET                 -0.43C COLDER         March Precip                 110.71% OF MAR AV
06/07/2020 to 22/09/2020 Analysis March CET                 -0.11C COLDER         March Precip                 112.66% OF MAR AV

04/11/2020 to 17/11/2020 Analysis OVERALL NOV-MAR ANOM -0.45C COLDER     OVERALL NOV-MAR % 105.92% OF NOV-MAR AV
21/10/2020 to 03/11/2020 Analysis OVERALL NOV-MAR ANOM      -0.38C COLDER      OVERALL NOV-MAR %    93.06% OF NOV-MAR AV
07/10/2020 to 20/10/2020 Analysis OVERALL NOV-MAR ANOM      -0.38C COLDER      OVERALL NOV-MAR %    101.43% OF NOV-MAR AV
23/09/2020 to 06/10/2020 Analysis OVERALL NOV-MAR ANOM      -0.37C COLDER      OVERALL NOV-MAR %    100.71% OF NOV-MAR AV
06/07/2020 to 22/09/2020 Analysis OVERALL NOV-MAR ANOM      -0.19C COLDER      OVERALL NOV-MAR %    104.43% OF NOV-MAR AV

November 2020

CET - I have already issued the full November forecast so refer to this for the details but the overall CET anomaly forecast was for -0.33C Colder than the 81-10 CET average, not currently going very well based on CET website.

Precip - My forecast showed a slightly drier than average November with 90.32% of predicted November precipitation

December 2020

CET - After we had several CET anomalies in the -0.20C to -0.29C range we finally broke into the -0.30C range last time with -0.36C colder. Even better news for the cold fans out there is that the getting colder trend has continued with a new low of -0.43C for December 2020 in the latest update. Starting to look more promising for December but what will the main December 2020 forecast reveal once I group all the monthly updates and the daily CFS runs together by the 30/11/2020 December 2020 forecast, you will have to wait until then to find out

Precip - Up until the previous update December 2020 has consistently come out as the driest month overall based on the predictions. This latest update has put December 2020 more in the average precipitation zone now with a very slightly above average 103.57% of average December precipitation predicted. With a trend slightly wetter as well as colder there is an increasing chance of a white Christmas if one of the colder spells can time itself properly with a wetter period around the day, we can only hope

January 2021

CET - January 2021 had generally turned out slightly colder than average anomalies since the start but the latest update was the only bad point about this update for cold fans. The last 14 days has backed away quite a bit from a colder January with a very small -0.07C Colder than average anomaly this time around. Hope this is a one off blip and colder anomalies resume from the next update as if this is the start of a trend then January 2021 is currently looking like it may turn out to be the mildest winter month.

Precip - January 2021 had trended slightly wetter than average in the first few updates before getting its first drier than average prediction last time. This update has continued the new drier than average theme for January 2021 with another 92.86% of average January precipitation predicted. With the switch around between December and January is it now possible that the new year could get off to a dry start rather than ending this year on a dry note

February 2021

CET - February 2021 has looked like a more solid colder than average month so far in the CFS analysis right back from in the summer and the latest update is no exception to this. This is the part of the forecast I have simply not been able to hold back and wait to deliver to you when I tell you that the latest prediction is a decent -0.71C colder than average anomaly, the coldest so far for February 2021 and in fact the coldest anomaly so far for any of the months. There were some pretty stonking charts showing up in the monthly analysis for February 2021 in the last 2 weeks and many had the -5 isotherm at 850mb either within the UK or clear of it completely and the V Cold option I got had this and the -10 isotherm was close to the east of the UK. A real opportunity for a cold February based on the latest runs but can the CFS keep this up or will it back off again?

Precip - February 2021 has consistently come out as overall the wettest month in the November 2020 to March 2021 period and the latest update keeps this trend full on and going strong with another 142.86% of February average. This is by far the wettest prediction so far from the CFS monthly charts for February 2021 and this combining with the ever colder CET anomaly is starting to look like we could be seeing a potential for a white out February 2021.

March 2021

CET - March 2021 has been the most interesting month so far for colder fans and the latest update keeps this interest firmly on course for the coldest anomaly to average of all 5 months between November 2020 and March 2021. The latest anomaly prediction is another repeat of the one for February 2021 with a new low of -0.71C colder than average. A number of decent charts showed up in the March monthly charts too although less extreme than the February ones enough of them came out colder than average to produce an identical anomaly to February 2021. Potential for snow here too but probably less of a threat with an average warmer month anyway

Precip - March 2021 has in general come out on the slightly wetter side of average but the latest update is the driest so far but with a prediction of bang on average precipitation this time with the latest 100% of March average predicted. Still the potential for snow makers in there, especially earlier on in the month if things time right.

Overall November 2020 - March 2021 period

CET - The overall CET anomaly has got slightly colder yet again with a new low of -0.45C colder than average predicted for the overall November 2020 to March 2021 period. Most of this overall drop will no doubt be down to the new coldest anomalies so far for February and March 2021. An even stronger signal for a back loaded winter is emerging here but with the colder December anomaly then maybe the La Nina pattern of a front loaded winter is going to show itself a bit before a milder January then maybe a SSW in January sets up the cold for February and March 2021

Precip - The overall drier than average precipitation signal didn't last long as we have now pushed back to the wetter side of average with a new slightly wetter high of 105.92% of overall November to March average. No doubt much of this is down to February 2021 getting even wetter along with December 2020 backing away from its drier signal. Before it looked like a drier start to the winter period before getting wetter later on and even if this is less defined at the start of the period it is somewhat still there with February 2021 maintaining top spot for wetter and now January as drier but December 2020 was only just above average this time and averaging out all precipitation figures for each month would still easily place December 2020 as the driest overall.

My next update based on the monthly CFS charts from weather outlook will be on 01/12/2020. As this is the case no more December 2020 will feature within my monthly updates but I will have my in depth December 2020 forecast based on the CFS for you all to see on 30/11/2020.

Edited by SqueakheartLW
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12 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

While I usually agree with that statement, I would say anything up until mid December is up in the air. A cold winter could still happen from that point on.

1984/85, 85/86 and 86/87 all had fairly mild spells during November and December, then the cold came during or after Christmas. 
 

2009, and 10, along with 12 and 17 winters did seem to produce some chilly weather before late November. 
 

 

Definitely. This year has shown us what we already know - anything is possible. Wettest February on record, a great April, sunniest May on record, the record breaking heatwave in summer. A cat 5 hurricane in November. Now winter is set against a backdrop of unprecedented arctic warmth, after seeing 38c at Verkhoyansk in the summer. Pattern matching and going against long term data is increasingly futile as the climate continues to change rapidly.

What I’d say is to just break things down into 10 day chunks, and go from there. The next 10 days (barring a brief dusting up north Thursday) are down the chute. It’s not even winter yet, and there’s 12 good weeks to use. Loads of time.

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7 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

While I usually agree with that statement, I would say anything up until mid December is up in the air. A cold winter could still happen from that point on.

1984/85, 85/86 and 86/87 all had fairly mild spells during November and December, then the cold came during or after Christmas. 
 

2009, and 10, along with 12 and 17 winters did seem to produce some chilly weather before late November. 
 

 

Could be different for UK but¬†all the years you named had cold spell(s)¬†in CE from 15.11. - 15.12. November 85 in particular was very cold and snowy here. So yeah, still a month to go in my opinion but I'm not holding my breath. Unless someone knows where the magic button for turning off euro heights is¬†ūüėÄ

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2 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

But how often has that actually amounted to anything with likely daytime temps of 4c??

December 2011. Couple of inches which lay all day (only partial melt) and froze solid at night. Uppers were -5. 

That's why I prefer December cold.

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1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

December 2011. Couple of inches which lay all day (only partial melt) and froze solid at night. Uppers were -5. 

That's why I prefer December cold.

Agree.

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2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

December 2011. Couple of inches which lay all day (only partial melt) and froze solid at night. Uppers were -5. 

That's why I prefer December cold.

Think i remember that - around 18th?

On a Sunday morning 5am?

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15 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Think i remember that - around 18th?

On a Sunday morning 5am?

No, pretty sure it was a Friday mate, somewhere around that date though.

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23 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Think i remember that - around 18th?

On a Sunday morning 5am?

I remember GFS was suggesting a hell of a storm at one stage but thankfully it backed off and the low tracked further south

 

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6 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

No, pretty sure it was a Friday mate, somewhere around that date though.

yes, it was the friday before the event i was on about - that one i was on about definitely occured the following sunday, very thin band so could have missed both you and even WH, i was in Saddleworth.

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I Don't remember that episode in December 2011 at all but the forecast video shows why!

Definitely would prefer cold and snowy weather in the early stages of winter. The weaker sun doesn't melt frost / snow compared to February and the short days feel brighter with a covering of snow. 

Give me December 2010, January 2010 and February 2019 ūüôā

I do say this with a well insulated house mind.

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For what little it's worth at this very early stage, my initial thoughts are it's going to be a long wait.

I don't see much in the way of cold (the odd PM blast notwithstanding) until February but then I think the "fun and games" will begin.

Anyone who thinks we will get 90 days of cold from early December to late February is deluding themselves. Most "memorable" winters consist of either a 7-10 severe spell or a cold "month" at most. 

The fact older members on this forum speak of the 1962-63 winter with such reverence shows its rarity. December 2010 was the coldest month in over a century yet who remembers January and February 2011? 

The short severe memorable episodes define the British winter - March 2013 and March 2018 for me for example. 

There's a clue perhaps the winter is starting later and staying later but that's a discussion for somewhere else.

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