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North West Regional Discussion 3 June 2020 onwards


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Another great sunset this evening

Lovely sunset

Timelapse of Wigan cell taking off. Starts about 2.40 into video, also at 1.45, the way the cloud took off as well  

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High impact warning on Met Office matrix, 

Severe thunderstorm risk - parts of Midlands, Wales & then northern England Monday pm, large & damaging hail, torrential rain, frequent lightning & possibly very strong/gusty winds. Very small chance of 150mm in 3 or 4 hours. 

and Nick F's forecast from earlier https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/uk/convective 

 

aug10convnick.png

aug10mowarnNW.png

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It has certainly become very humid since those light showers passed through. Sun is out, temperatures increasing 27 - feels hotter though. Definitely 'feels' like it will go boom. It's been a bumper year for thunderstorms in the west and south of the region.  

image.thumb.png.32ea823b5c044f93ada4036795e59296.pngEdit: Just to highlight Estofex' take on it too. Areas of risk match closely to met office and Nick F's as Jo posted above. 

Edited by Mark88
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Here on the coast it's actually been quite cool and fairly comfortable with a light breeze. Temperature is currently 23C so by no means hot, but when the sun comes out occasionally it feels warm. 

It remains to be seen what the nature, if there is any, the storms take here on the coast where it is notably cooler than inland.

Also I noticed there's a clear seabreeze now developed across the coastal portions of northwest England.. I presume that pretty much means curtains to at least surface based storms

Edited by SP1986
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Well the forecast looks promising if not the radar at the moment for severe thunderstorms.  They'll need to be homegrown and track from a South East to North West trajectory to land here.

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Yeah, things don't look too encouraging at the moment radar wise, but we're only at the start of the warning period and things could develop very quickly.

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The temperature has plummeted here and the breeze has picked up.. it feels really notably cool now compared to before at just 18C. I think in reality these conditions cannot support any worthwhile storm activity, even at elevation. It's the usual case of being damned on the coast (although to be fair we had it good a few months ago). This is not just a whiny rant though.. I've been matching up the radar returns, lightning strikes and recent evolution of temperature and it's basically killing off any potential developments here. Unless there is something I've missed of course! 

In fact to support my point look how the coastal breeze is killing the precipitation by the coast as far inland as 15 miles

For you guys inland I hope it stays favourable and this cool coastal air doesn't spread too far inland! 

 

Edited by SP1986
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28 minutes ago, SP1986 said:

The temperature has plummeted here and the breeze has picked up.. it feels really notably cool now compared to before at just 18C. I think in reality these conditions cannot support any worthwhile storm activity, even at elevation. It's the usual case of being damned on the coast (although to be fair we had it good a few months ago). This is not just a whiny rant though.. I've been matching up the radar returns, lightning strikes and recent evolution of temperature and it's basically killing off any potential developments here. Unless there is something I've missed of course! 

In fact to support my point look how the coastal breeze is killing the precipitation by the coast as far inland as 15 miles

For you guys inland I hope it stays favourable and this cool coastal air doesn't spread too far inland! 

 

You sound like me in Winter when everyone is getting snow bar the Wirral lol

Plenty of time yet

Edited by Day 10
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raining here now, but no storms, there isnt that feel even. You have to admit though, it does feel rather chilly and none descript now. That shower has literally died out (sea breeze causing drier air at low levels I presume?).. Im assuming also that these bands moving up now are what were forecast? I havent had a whole load of time to look into it but that's all I can see on the radar for now.

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Are we expecting any more developments further South or has this all just gone up in a puff of smoke today? Liverpool Airport TAF was updated around 1.5 hours ago and is still going for possibility of thunderstorm until 3 in morning.

Edited by Dexter
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57 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

A few rumbles to my south @CreweCold anything happening near you.

C.S

Not heard anything mate but then I'm stuck in work until 10.30. Noticed it went dark to the SW/W

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p08n8hz1.jpg
WWW.BBC.CO.UK

Streets have been flooded in Aberystwyth and New Quay sees over 100 lightning strikes in an hour.

Guess this is from the cell that's going to miss us and go into the Irish Sea ? Can hear the odd rumble from it but very far away and judging from wind direction we're not going to get anything unless something develops later but it doesn't feel warm and humid enough for T&L

Had a few intermittent spells of sunshine today but as all of this summer it's been mostly cloudy, if there's records for cloudiest summers I wouldn't be surprised if this summer is in the top 3

 

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Nothing much to the south on radar so not entirely sure if that was meant to be the main course or not. Maybe a few showers rattling through later? 

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Even more barren here east of Manchester...not a sniff at anything yet... the only good news is that the humid feeling is still in the air.  Maybe something will liven up overnight from the south and spread more inland.

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5 minutes ago, dodge said:

Even more barren here east of Manchester...not a sniff at anything yet... the only good news is that the humid feeling is still in the air.  Maybe something will liven up overnight from the south and spread more inland.

Not sure anything was expected prior to the early hours locally..

Tomorrow evening hopefully much better storm wise.

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32 minutes ago, Dexter said:

Seems to be developments further South in Midlands according to the other thread so there is hope yet for tonight.

Nice thunderstorm in Birmingham and a couple of cells northwest of London. The problem is (like with the Cambridge storm earlier) that those surface based storms come up and die quite quickly.

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