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Storms and Convective discussion - 1st June 2020onwards

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I reckon it landfalls somewhere inbetween Redcar and Scarborough 

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9 minutes ago, Thunder and Lightning said:

AROME be teasing....

 

I actually hope this comes off though, It has been in a few model runs recently.

Screenshot 2020-06-13 at 06.13.53.png

I would certainly settle for that, looks like it would be pretty close to me though not sure exactly. 

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Posted (edited)
9 hours ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Has he got Zakvision? ?

       we all; do we just need to know how to (ask Zak) i can only see a few kilometers?

Edited by Xanderp009
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had a storm go nearlyover, looked like it was going to miss me in the north, it missed me in the south and then the anvil deterioted along with the

storm i was too late with my camera

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Well a dead duck for us today and looking like a depressing foggy misty day with north sea clag persisting

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Appears that This system made it fairly intact to Newcastle, all the way from Luxembourg! That is some distance. 

On a good note, it’s pretty clear here, lovely and warm! 

Wishing the best for folk today. 

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Overnight clag seems to be breaking up nicely here in rugby,hopefully get some storms later.fingers crossed.

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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Paul said:

Here's Nick's latest storm forecast - a widespread risk today..

https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/uk/convective

stormmap_130620.png

 

socialmedialogo.png
WWW.CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK

Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days.

 

there’s also the update to CW forecast ?

Edited by Flash bang flash bang etc
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2 minutes ago, Paul said:

Here's Nick's latest storm forecast - a widespread risk today..

https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/uk/convective

stormmap_130620.png

 

Cheers as ever Nick/Paul. For us in the SE, don’t be too disheartened by the 10% hatching - the wording is more uplifting although we all know how unreliable the models have been (and how inherently unpredictable these setups are anyway). 

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Whelp, bright sunshine going on up here already.  Temperatures on the rise (about 2C an hour so far) and it's already around 16C now.  It's also MUGGY AS HELL, feels like I'm breathing in a Steam Bath rather than just air! (tbh it's what woke me up early... urgh...) Skies are 50/50 clear with cumulous already forming, but they have that nasty blinding icy haziness to them.

*rubs hands together* Looking good already ??️

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Posted (edited)

Estofex have nothing anywhere in Europe today. Quite unusual.

Edited by TN26
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3 minutes ago, TN26 said:

Estofex have nothing anywhere in Europe today. Quite unusual.

Wouldn’t be surprised if they’re waiting a few extra hours, but I’ve seen them miss a forecast before

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16 minutes ago, Ryukai said:

Whelp, bright sunshine going on up here already.  Temperatures on the rise (about 2C an hour so far) and it's already around 16C now.  It's also MUGGY AS HELL, feels like I'm breathing in a Steam Bath rather than just air! (tbh it's what woke me up early... urgh...) Skies are 50/50 clear with cumulous already forming, but they have that nasty blinding icy haziness to them.

*rubs hands together* Looking good already ??️

You want a good few hours’ insolation but I fear the clouds will inhibit that if they’re already developing ?

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Posted (edited)

Stunning clear Blue Skies in the South East and Essex this morning

But there is still an edge of early spring with that wind off the North Sea here and certainly no humidity to speak of.

Guess areas from London up towards the West Midlands and on into Wales will be best placed today.

Edited by Paul Sherman
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1 minute ago, Paul Sherman said:

Stunning clear Blue Skies in the South East and Essex this morning

But it still feels cold with that wind off the North Sea here and certainly no humidity to speak of.

Guess areas from London up towards the West Midlands and on into Wales will be best placed today.

Wondering if any sea breeze convergence can kick in around here. We actually have a SE’ly feed at the minute and it’s brilliantly blue sky. If we can generate a sea breeze front, then that could add fuel to the fire for the midlands in particular! The trouble is, sea breezes here aren’t like Florida, where they form off two of the warmest areas of sea in the world! 

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2 hours ago, The PIT said:

Well a dead duck for us today and looking like a depressing foggy misty day with north sea clag persisting

Certainly looks like a lighter mist and all the models and forecasts show it breaking up in time for a better afternoon. Chin up.

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Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

You want a good few hours’ insolation but I fear the clouds will inhibit that if they’re already developing ?

Luckily almost all the cloud is to the west (and moving away), the east side is almost completely clear, so bright almost completely unblocked morning sunshine. Also looking at the Wunderground dashboard stations near me, were at 17-18C now and it's only been 30 mins..... surface temps are racing up ? 

Edited by Ryukai
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38 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Stunning clear Blue Skies in the South East and Essex this morning

But there is still an edge of early spring with that wind off the North Sea here and certainly no humidity to speak of.

Guess areas from London up towards the West Midlands and on into Wales will be best placed today.

Don’t be fooled Paul, we have the breeze here too but it’s still notably humid when the breeze wains. Having said that the humid feel I believe is expected to reduce through the day (which you’d expect as it warms up anyway) but a renewed pulse of moisture is expected later this afternoon ahead of a (hopefully) incoming trough. With clearer skies today I’m hopeful that if any signs do emerge at least I’ll get to see and enjoy them even if it doesn’t fire ? small wins and all that ?

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