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Winds upgraded somewhat local forecasts have downgraded. Rainfall at the time of writing looks fairly weak on the radar and disorganised. The main rain yet to arrive.

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So what idiocy will we see today. Shorts and Tshirted hikers rescued from Snowdon. People being washed into the sea in Newquay whilst taking selfies.....with a dozen surfers in the backgroun

One hell of an atmospheric river of moisture upstream across the Atlantic all the way from Bahamas   Looks ominous and indeed models are indicating another wave of heavy rain to move in toni

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Through the first half of Sunday a double cold front structure will track south across England and Wales. There could well be some heavy rain and strong gusts on the squall lines but behind both the winds and rain should abate

PPVE89.thumb.gif.f6bf235a308c202fdfa8ac9423fa43c3.gifPPVG89.thumb.gif.26507349e1f54affee373c9b5b3e5095.gifPPVI89.thumb.gif.0ef39128c801d05d19d4251fe1942b9d.gif

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But note in the latter half of the day further complications arise in the form of troughs tracking east in the circulation and the movement south east of a filling Dennis. Thus the wind picking up in western regions, particularly NW Scotland with more heavy rain on the cards

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And aloft

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Edited by knocker
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26 minutes ago, Lisa Martin said:

When are things due to pick up? Got MIL driving down to me today and hoping can get her here early before weather deteriorates 

Depends where you are....?

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Storm Dennis.  Doesn't really fill me with trepidation, that name.  Storm Damien - now that might do it!   This will be a long lasting event with no specific peak, as there are likely to be strong gusts felt widely at different times through the the UK and widespread heavy rainfall.  However, the most widespread and intense period of high winds is predicted by ARPEGE to occur an hour or so either side of 5:00 pm today south of the border:

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North of the border, western Scotland and the western isles are in for a battering around midnight Sunday (AROME):

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1 hour ago, Lisa Martin said:

When are things due to pick up? Got MIL driving down to me today and hoping can get her here early before weather deteriorates 

Why not look at the met office video forecast. They are normally pretty accurate. 

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Storm Ciara produced a maximum gust of 64mph here on the Sussex coast with elevation.

Way short of the touted 70mph and 80mph.

Nothing more than a standard winter storm for us.

GFS touted maximum gusts of 72mph for last weekend.

This morning it is calling for 75mph.

So my point is,rather typical that all the talk of Dennis not being as severe wind wise could actually be unwise.

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Well latest Met Office video update mentioning max 50mph inland gusts, so clearly all the forecasts and models are not agreeing again just like last week.

Some models this morning are showing much higher winds but they tend to overdo the winds compared to other models. But maybe this time will be different, if we have either incredibly good luck or bad luck  depending on how you see it.

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4 minutes ago, sunnijim said:

Storm Ciara produced a maximum gust of 64mph here on the Sussex coast with elevation.

Way short of the touted 70mph and 80mph.

Nothing more than a standard winter storm for us.

GFS touted maximum gusts of 72mph for last weekend.

This morning it is calling for 75mph.

So my point is,rather typical that all the talk of Dennis not being as severe wind wise could actually be unwise.

I reckon I stand a good chance of the same here in Ipswich.

Ciara only managed a top gust of 57mph and squall lines were tatty and weak at this location.

It certainly wouldn't take much.

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So a quick look at some of the various models overnight runs to see how the wind-speeds are looking.  Most seems to have upped the intensity from the 18z.

Firstly, looking at the NMM's 'Maximum Gusts' for the next 36 hours.  This is by far the most extreme model with 80-90mph winds for large parts of the country. 

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The EURO4 is significantly lower, with the majority of the UK only looking at 60mph winds

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Arpege is somewhat of a halfway house between the two with much of England and Wales seeing 70mph gusts

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GFS fairly similar, this is for 7.00am tonight and 7.00am tomorrow morning

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Whilst not currently looking quite as extreme as Storm Ciara, this is still a notable storm, especially given the rainfall predictions. Also, the longevity of 50mph winds across much of the country is quite unusual.   

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Looking nasty for areas of Yorkshire and Wales due to rain from Dennis.

Also now looks likely most areas will see some very strong winds at times. From County Durham down to north of London, wind gusts could touch on 70mph inland. Later on overnight the southwest could get a pummelling with another round of severe gales transferring east across the southern England.

 

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Edited by Cold Winter
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Worth keeping an eye on the central pressure values this weekend for Storm Dennis, potentially one of the deepest on record for the North Atlantic. 

Netweather Radar for current rain, https://www.netweather.tv/live-weather/radar

Flood alerts and warnings from Environment agency for England https://flood-warning-information.service.gov.uk/warnings

Natural resources WAles  https://naturalresources.wales/flooding/check-flood-warnings/?lang=en

SEPA scotland. https://floodline.sepa.org.uk/floodupdates/

This Storm Dennis event is mainly about the flood risk: the heavy rain, snow melt in Scotland, massive swell later in weekend. So surface water flooding and poor conditions on roads, rising river levels as they respond to heavy rain and then coastal issues (mainly in the west again).  All after a very wet week.  

AMBER Warnings for rain today and tomorrow. There will also be very strong winds at times, high gusts. Wind warnings today/Sunday and overnight into Monday as the low centre passes by northern Scotland.  

 

 

 

 

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It is pouring with rain here when I went out to shop before. The rain seems to easing off for now.

But it will soon come back no doubt.

Edited by pip22
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Official Weather UK

@Official_WXUK

·

3h

Stunning sat imagery of #StormDennis this morning which underwent #ExplosiveCyclogenesis in the last 24 hours, current pressure ~935mb and still dropping. On course to become one of the deepest North Atlantic low pressure systems on record.

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Most people round here will be wondering what's all the fuss is about. Storm Dennis a little behind schedule conditions deteriorating slowly the rainfall very light and the breeze still a gentle one.

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1 minute ago, The PIT said:

Most people round here will be wondering what's all the fuss is about. Storm Dennis a little behind schedule conditions deteriorating slowly the rainfall very light and the breeze still a gentle one.

I've had a few gusts reaching 40mph so far, but nothing extreme.

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